Gale Warning 94, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 29, 2012, 9:44 AM AKST (18:44 UTC)

Expired

Jan 29, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

151 
FZAK51 PAJK 291844 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-300100-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
 A 984 MB LOW CENTER 225 NM SW OF CAPE DECISION WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NE. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SUN EVENING. A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE SW ON MON. 

$$

PKZ011-300100-
GLACIER BAY-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2
FT LATE. 
.MON...N 10 KT WIND BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-300100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-300100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-300100-
ICY STRAIT-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-300100-
CROSS SOUND-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-300100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-300100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-300100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-300100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-300100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-300100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
944 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 20KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 29, 6:22 AM AKST, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
622 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. THE LOW ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE YUKON IS CAUSING A NORTHERLY WIND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING
IN OVER THE YAKUTAT/GLACIER BAY/HAINES/SKAGWAY AREAS. THIS WILL
KEEP THOSE AREAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...INCLUDING
JUNEAU...BELOW FREEZING TODAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
THE OTHER HAND IS SEEING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW. THE METLAKATLA AREA IS ALREADY IN THE LOW
40S AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AT ABOUT
FREDERICK SOUND. THEREFORE THE SITKA AREA WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN
TODAY WHILE THE ANGOON AREA WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW...MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR ANGOON THROUGH NOON AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AROUND THE LOW...KEEPING THAT AREA
MOSTLY DRY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THERE.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY
THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES NE
INTO BC. A FRONT WILL FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...ENHANCING
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. BY THIS TIME MOST AREAS
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AND THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE KETCHIKAN AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND
WEAKENS WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDERNEATH.

IN THE JUNEAU AREA SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SNOW
TYPE. FLAKES ARE OF THE NEEDLE TYPE WHICH FORM AT TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND -5C. LOOKING AT A NAM MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION OF
TEMPERATURE AND RH IN BUFKIT...THE -5 TEMPERATURE CONTOUR AND THE
MAX OMEGA IS CENTERED ON THE MAX RH ALOFT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THEREFORE IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THAT THESE NEEDLE TYPE
CRYSTALS WILL CONTINUE IN ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TODAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWER ACCUMULATIONS THAN WITH A HEAVY WET SNOW. HAVE GONE
WITH A RANGE OF 1 TO 4 INCHES FOR TODAY AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR WHEN THE
FRONT/TROUGH AXIS FORMS TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS SYSTEM...MODELS SEEM TO BE
HANDLING IT WELL. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN LOW CENTER
PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF IT AS IT MOVES NORTH...BUT IDEA OF RAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND COLD/DRY TO THE NORTH ARE SIMILAR. USED AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL
MOVES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AS FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVES ACROSS THE AK GULF REACHING THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE LOW CENTER
WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST MOVING WEST OF YAKUTAT BAY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVES EAST OVER THE AK PANHANDLE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AROUND 965 MB, ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST AK GULF WED INTO
THURSDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN SNOW LINE
NEARING THE JUNEAU-HOONAH CORRIDOR. 850 TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND ARE STILL BETWEEN -4 TO -6 C SO EXPECT PRECIP TO
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT VERY CLOSE TO SWITCHING TO ONE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL
EVENTS FOR THE WEEK BUT AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT CONSISTENT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AS DAY TIME TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND PRECIP CHANGES TO MORE RAIN FLOODING WILL BE
A POSSIBLE ISSUE AS SNOW PACK FOR SOME LOCATIONS IS QUITE LARGE
AND SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT MAY RESULT.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. WITH THE FRONT MOVING OVER THE
GULF WEDNESDAY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EAST-WEST
ORIENTED INSIDE PASSAGES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN.

MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. NAM WAS LOOKING MORE
OF AN OUTLIER WITH A FASTER MOVING RIDGE ON MONDAY. BY 00Z WED
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH PRECIP TIMING AND
LOCATION VARIED ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST. MAY SEE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIP ON WED INTO THUR
BUT NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE AS THIS TIME. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. BLENDED IN SOME 00Z GFS/ECMWF STARTING
MONDAY THEN TRANSITIONED TO HPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LESS COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN MOVES IN BUT CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY INCREASES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

HANNON/PRB

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.