Small Craft Advisory 69, NWS Juneau, AK

323 
FZAK51 PAJK 251256
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-260100-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-260100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-260100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-260100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-260100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-260100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. W
SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-260100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-260100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-260100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SW
WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-260100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-260100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-260100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 18 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A TRIPLE POINT
SOUTHEAST OF HAIDA GWAII. SLIGHTLY WARM AIR MASS MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST GULF. COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM HOONAH TO JUNEAU. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A 965 MB LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
THE ECMWF FOR ITS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL BE SNOW. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...SOME MISTY PRECIPITATION OF SNOW AND RAIN
MIX MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

 STILL LOOK FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVER HAINES...HOONAH AND JUNEAU ZONES...INCLUDING HYDER.
FROM GLACIER BAY...ELFIN COVE AND ANGOON AREAS WILL RECEIVED
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SOUTH OF SITKA AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP
OF THE PANHANDLE. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE
27...AS WELL AS A STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS
AND CLARENCE STRAIT.

 WITH A SMALL POCKET OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT COLDER AIR MASS JUST BEHIND OF THE TRACK
WILL BRING MERCURY READING FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE BEHIND THE LOW TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...A VERY COLD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ALASKA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL A BROAD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS
NORTH INTO NE PACIFIC LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG LOW MOVES NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. COULD
SEE THIS MIX WITH SOME RAIN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL WITH FLOW OFF
GULF. DO EXPECT SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WITH SHOWERS BUT WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WIND DIRECTION AND TERRAIN ON LOCAL SCALE. WEST WINDS
WILL BE AT AT LEAST GALE FORCE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH BUILDS SEAS
20-25 FEET. AIR MASS OVER GULF IS QUITE COLD SO WILL SEE TEMPS BACK
INTO 20S WITH THE WESTERLIES.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO GULF AND WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL START OUT AS SNOW BUT THINK
ALL AREAS WILL GO TO SNOW BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
SUN-MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND LOOKING LIKE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
DEVELOPMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT ALL GENERALLY SHOW SAME
EVOLUTION. USED A MIX AND BLEND OF MODELS WITH LIMITED CHANGES TO
OVERALL PACKAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ020-022-
     024.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-043-
     051-052.

&&

AHN/MM