Gale Warning 86, NWS Juneau, AK

350 
FZAK52 PAJK 252239 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-260100-
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A NEAR STATIONARY LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE
NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-260100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-260100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-260100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-260100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW...RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-260100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
139 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW...RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A TRIPLE POINT
SOUTHEAST OF HAIDA GWAII. SLIGHTLY WARM AIR MASS MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST GULF. COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM HOONAH TO JUNEAU. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A 965 MB LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
THE ECMWF FOR ITS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL BE SNOW. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...SOME MISTY PRECIPITATION OF SNOW AND RAIN
MIX MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

 STILL LOOK FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVER HAINES...HOONAH AND JUNEAU ZONES...INCLUDING HYDER.
FROM GLACIER BAY...ELFIN COVE AND ANGOON AREAS WILL RECEIVED
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SOUTH OF SITKA AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP
OF THE PANHANDLE. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE
27...AS WELL AS A STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS
AND CLARENCE STRAIT.

 WITH A SMALL POCKET OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT COLDER AIR MASS JUST BEHIND OF THE TRACK
WILL BRING MERCURY READING FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE BEHIND THE LOW TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...A VERY COLD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ALASKA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL A BROAD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS
NORTH INTO NE PACIFIC LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG LOW MOVES NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. COULD
SEE THIS MIX WITH SOME RAIN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL WITH FLOW OFF
GULF. DO EXPECT SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WITH SHOWERS BUT WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WIND DIRECTION AND TERRAIN ON LOCAL SCALE. WEST WINDS
WILL BE AT AT LEAST GALE FORCE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH BUILDS SEAS
20-25 FEET. AIR MASS OVER GULF IS QUITE COLD SO WILL SEE TEMPS BACK
INTO 20S WITH THE WESTERLIES.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO GULF AND WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL START OUT AS SNOW BUT THINK
ALL AREAS WILL GO TO SNOW BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
SUN-MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND LOOKING LIKE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
DEVELOPMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT ALL GENERALLY SHOW SAME
EVOLUTION. USED A MIX AND BLEND OF MODELS WITH LIMITED CHANGES TO
OVERALL PACKAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ020-022-
     024.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-043-
     051-052.

&&

AHN/MM