Small Craft Advisory 682, NWS Juneau, AK

729 
FZAK51 PAJK 152143 AAC
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-160100-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 990 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WHILE DEEPENING TO 982 MB BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-160100-
GLACIER BAY-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-160100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-160100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-160100-
ICY STRAIT-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-160100-
CROSS SOUND-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-160100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-160100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-160100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-160100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-160100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-160100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1243 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
529 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LOW...ABOUT 992 MB...EAST OF KODIAK. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH REMAINS OVER SKAGWAY AREA AND GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. HAINES LATELY JOINED THE STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINTAINED A STRONG
WINDS HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW EAST OF KODIAK THIS
MORNING SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD CONSISTENCY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAINING
AROUND 40 DEGREES. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THE LOW
WILL ALSO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND YUKON TERRITORY WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SLOWLY SPILL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE INTERIOR CONTINUES
TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALOFT THAT EXTENDS N ALONG
MERIDIAN 180 DEGREES. THE ARCTIC OUTFLOW IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

NOTE THAT THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INCLUDES FREEZING SPRAY. THE INCREASING ARCTIC
OUTFLOW WILL RESULT IN THE FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS TO REACH
GLACIER BAY, ALL OF LYNN CANAL, AND MOST OF THE INTERIOR INLETS
TO STEPHENS PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE STRUCTURE OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW THAT HAS TRACKED ESE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND MOVE ESE
PAST KODIAK ISLAND ABOUT 06Z AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 990 MB
THIS MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE ABOUT
200 NM SE OF KODIAK ABOUT 18Z. WE WILL CALL THIS LOW NUMBER ONE.
LOW NUMBER TWO IS ABOUT 100 NM S OF SEWARD AND ALREADY HAS
A CENTRAL OF ABOUT 988 MB.

THE CYCLONIC INTERACTION OF LOWS ONE AND TWO WILL INCLUDE LOW ONE
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF LOW TWO. THE QUITE COLD CORE OF LOW ONE IS
BEING SENT SE TO A COMPARATIVELY WARM REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF, WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BAROCLINITY WILL BE SPENT
IN THE REDEVELOPMENT. THIS REDEVELOPMENT, ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK, WILL PRODUCE THE RAISED WIND SPEEDS GIVEN IN THE
FORECASTS. PLEASE NOTE THE LARGE EXTENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN
THE INNER CHANNELS THIS WEEKEND, AND THE CONTINUED INCREASING
SPEEDS THORUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM FORCE N WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FOR MONDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041-052.

&&

AHN/JBT