Small Craft Advisory 679, NWS Juneau, AK

427 
FZAK52 PAJK 150656 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH THU
MORNING. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AK INTERIOR
AND YUKON LATE WED NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE S THROUGH FRI. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT
LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT
LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT
LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT
LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
956 PM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

264 
FZAK52 PAJK 151235
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 992 MB LOW E OF KODIAK THU MORNING WILL SLIDE SE TO THE S
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND DEEPEN TO 986 MB. ARCTIC
AIR FROM YUKON TERRITORY WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE 
LATE FRI. 

 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THE LOW IS SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST. A TRIPLE POINT PASSING NORTH OF KODIAK
PROPAGATES NORTHEAST. WELL DEFINED PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A COLD
FRONT FORMS BEHIND THE RAIN BAND. RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS
TRAPPED BETWEEN THE OCCLUSION AND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. WARMER AIR MASS AND INCREASING
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS KEEPS PRECIPITATION MOSTLY
RAIN...EXCEPT YAKUTAT AREA WHERE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AND SNOW
OVER NORTHERN MOST PANHANDLE AND INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL
PANHANDLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A BRIEF BREAK OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BUT THE NEXT PRECIPITATION BAND WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 6 OR 7 AM WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY
RAIN...EXCEPT FURTHER INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION IN MENDENHALL
VALLEY. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH NOON
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN BY MID MORNING AND CHANGE OVER ALL RAIN
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING
SEA MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALL RAIN EXCEPT ALONG THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS WHERE UP
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS
AND MOST INNER CHANNELS TODAY. BEHIND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...THE WINDS WILL EASE DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE ROUGH SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW THAT IS TO TRACK INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN N TO NE OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI
FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, AND WIND INCREASES ALSO EXTEND TO
MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS. LITTLE HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE
FORECASTS FOR BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING THE LOWERING
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED
BY A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALOFT THAT EXTENDS N ALONG MERIDIAN
180 DEGREES. THIS ARCTIC OUTFLOW IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
LOWERING TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATE THIS
WEEK.

A 973 MB LOW IN BERING WILL TRACK ESE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KODIAK ISLAND ABOUT 06Z THU. WE WILL
GIVE THIS LOW THE NAME OF LOW NUMBER ONE.  AN ASSOCIATED TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AHEAD OF LOW ONE. THIS TRIPLE
POINT LOW IS GIVEN THE NAME OF LOW NUMBER TWO. LOW TWO WILL DEEPEN
TO AT LEAST 991 MB IN THE VICINITY OF SEWARD AT 12Z THU, AND
WILL DEEPEN TO ABOUT 984 MB AS IT REACHES A POINT 300 NM SSW OF
YAKUTAT AT 12Z FRI.

THE CYCLONIC INTERACTION OF LOWS ONE AND TWO WILL INCLUDE LOW
ONE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF LOW TWO. THE QUITE COLD CORE OF LOW TWO
WILL BE SENT SE TO A COMPARATIVELY WARM REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF, WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BAROCLINITY BEING SPENT AS
A REDEVELOPED CYCLOGENESIS OF LOW ONE. THIS REDEVELOPMENT IS THE
REASON FOR THE RAISED WIND SPEEDS IN THE FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

LOW TWO WILL RE INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 984 MB AS IT REACHES A POINT
300 NM SSW OF YAKUTAT AT 12Z FRI.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

AHN/JBT