Small Craft Advisory 658, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKST WED NOV 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT QUIET WITH A
WEAKENING LOW SPINNING ITSELF OUT JUST WEST OF BARANOF ISLAND.
THE OLD WEAK FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT IS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SHOWERS ARE STILL AROUND AS WELL
BUT THEY ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SOME OF THESE WERE FALLING AS
SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION, BUT MOST HAVE CHANGED BACK TO RAIN AT THE MOMENT.
MEANWHILE THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE YUKON HAS
BROUGHT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DISENCHANTMENT BAY, THE PASSES
EAST OF YAKUTAT, LYNN CANAL, AND WHITE PASS. LYNN CANAL HAS BEEN
ESPECIALLY STRONG AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT ELDRED ROCK SINCE LAST NIGHT. SKAGWAY ITSELF HAS NOT
SEEN MUCH WIND SO FAR AS AN INVERSION MAY HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE TOWN. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO BROUGHT COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS DEW POINTS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS.

CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE LOW IN THE GULF
SLIDES SE BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE AREA. THE LOW IS
ALREADY STARTING ITS SE SLIDE. BY TOMORROW MOST PLACES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE CLOUDS
OUT.

THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER, WITH
THE GULF LOW WEAKENING AND SLIDING SE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY ARE TODAY. THE GALE IN NORTHERN LYNN AND THE STRONG
WIND HEADLINE IN SKAGWAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT SUPPORT IT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. STILL WITH THE CONTINUED COLD AIR DRAINAGE, SMALL
CRAFT WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN LYNN CANAL THROUGH TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL START DROPPING AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. LOWS IN MOST PLACES IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE 20S AND
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 30S.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FEW DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THEM. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND THE NAM FOR UPDATES TODAY AS BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER
WELL AND USUALLY DISPLAY BETTER DETAILS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
DURING THESE COLD AIR SCENARIOS. FORECAST CONFIDENCES IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE INTERIOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TAKING WITH
ITS COLD POOL OF AIR. THE WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WHILE THIS IS GOING ON CLEARING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LAST ONLY A SHORT TIME
WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. RAIN ASSOCIATED THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD IN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THINK
THAT THE RAIN/SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GENERALLY CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EACH OTHER. HEADED INTO THE NEXT WEEK PART AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE SOLUTIONS BREAK DOWN. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION
WHICH WAS USING PRIMARY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR ITS FORECAST
IN THE LATER PERIOD.

THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA IN THE MARINE
WATERS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AND THE PERIODS OF SOME FREEZING SPRAY
TAPERING OFF AS WELL WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING AND THE WINDS
SUBSIDING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

EAL/BEZENEK