Small Craft Advisory 646, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...A GALE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS WEAKENING WHILE
TRACKING N OVERNIGHT. A STORM FORCE LOW IS DEVELOPING FROM A FAST
MOVING HIGHLY BAROCLINIC WAVE ABOUT 800 NM SW OF KETCHIKAN AT
THIS TIME. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT
ALEXANDER ABOUT 03Z MON AND IS THE REASON FOR THE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOTE ALSO THE STORM WARNINGS
IN PKZ 41 AND 36. OTHER THAN THE CHANGE FROM HIGH WIND WATCH TO
HIGH WIND WARNING, THE CHANGES ARE MINOR. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS CONTINUED.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 MODELS CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS HAS BEEN APPLIED.

.LONG TERM...CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE WERE GENERALLY SMALL AND
LIMITED TO SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. STILL ON TRACK FOR A STRONG BUT
WEAKENING LOW TO MOVE ACROSS CAPE DECISION OR FAR SRN BARANOF
ISLAND SUN EVENING...THEN REMNANTS OF THE LOW SHOULD BE NE OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK MON. A LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF MON THEN
BEGIN TO SLIDE SE TUE INTO WED AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER SE
INTERIOR AK AND THE YUKON. LOOKS LIKE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NRN AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN ARRIVE IN
THE PAJN AREA WED MORNING. THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR TUE-
TUE NIGHT THAT IS NOT IN CURRENT FORECAST. GFS DEVELOPS A SMALL
LOW AND MOVES IT NNE TOWARD THE E-CENTRAL GULF TUE AFTERNOON.
NEWEST EC PICKS UP ON THIS SOME BUT IS WEAKER. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
A NEW CONCEPT IN THE MODELS DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON IT YET.
FURTHER OUT...LATEST HPC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A
SYSTEM IN ACROSS THE NRN GULF TOWARD NRN SE AK NEXT WEEKEND THAN
CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH THIS FEATURE TO REALLY GO THAT DIRECTION
ATTM. IF THE 00Z RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HPC THEN IT
SHOULD BE BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST.

 AS FOR THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE...BUMPED UP THE WINDS SOME OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS MON INTO MON NIGHT BASED ON THE
GRADIENT THAT WAS ALREADY IN THERE. RAISED MUCH OF THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS TO MIN SCA LEVELS MON BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY MON
NIGHT. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKED REALLY GOOD
INCLUDING TIMING OF THE HIGH WIND EVENT OVER THE SOUTH SUN
EVENING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>035-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032-053.

&&

JBT/RWT