Storm Warning 43, NWS Juneau, AK

216 
FZAK52 PAJK 041252
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-050100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 34 FT
SUBSIDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISHING. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...A GALE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS WEAKENING WHILE
TRACKING N OVERNIGHT. A STORM FORCE LOW IS DEVELOPING FROM A FAST
MOVING HIGHLY BAROCLINIC WAVE ABOUT 800 NM SW OF KETCHIKAN AT
THIS TIME. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT
ALEXANDER ABOUT 03Z MON AND IS THE REASON FOR THE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOTE ALSO THE STORM WARNINGS
IN PKZ 41 AND 36. OTHER THAN THE CHANGE FROM HIGH WIND WATCH TO
HIGH WIND WARNING, THE CHANGES ARE MINOR. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS CONTINUED.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 MODELS CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS HAS BEEN APPLIED.

.LONG TERM...CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE WERE GENERALLY SMALL AND
LIMITED TO SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. STILL ON TRACK FOR A STRONG BUT
WEAKENING LOW TO MOVE ACROSS CAPE DECISION OR FAR SRN BARANOF
ISLAND SUN EVENING...THEN REMNANTS OF THE LOW SHOULD BE NE OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK MON. A LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF MON THEN
BEGIN TO SLIDE SE TUE INTO WED AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER SE
INTERIOR AK AND THE YUKON. LOOKS LIKE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NRN AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN ARRIVE IN
THE PAJN AREA WED MORNING. THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR TUE-
TUE NIGHT THAT IS NOT IN CURRENT FORECAST. GFS DEVELOPS A SMALL
LOW AND MOVES IT NNE TOWARD THE E-CENTRAL GULF TUE AFTERNOON.
NEWEST EC PICKS UP ON THIS SOME BUT IS WEAKER. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
A NEW CONCEPT IN THE MODELS DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON IT YET.
FURTHER OUT...LATEST HPC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A
SYSTEM IN ACROSS THE NRN GULF TOWARD NRN SE AK NEXT WEEKEND THAN
CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH THIS FEATURE TO REALLY GO THAT DIRECTION
ATTM. IF THE 00Z RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HPC THEN IT
SHOULD BE BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST.

 AS FOR THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE...BUMPED UP THE WINDS SOME OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS MON INTO MON NIGHT BASED ON THE
GRADIENT THAT WAS ALREADY IN THERE. RAISED MUCH OF THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS TO MIN SCA LEVELS MON BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY MON
NIGHT. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKED REALLY GOOD
INCLUDING TIMING OF THE HIGH WIND EVENT OVER THE SOUTH SUN
EVENING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>035-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032-053.

&&

JBT/RWT