Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 22, 2012, 9:25 AM AKST (18:25 UTC)

Expired

Jan 22, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

7 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

818 
FZAK51 PAJK 221826 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-230100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NW GULF WILL REMAIN THERE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NE TO THE CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY SUN EVENING AND WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ011-230100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-230100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
925 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING N 10 KT LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-230100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
730 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

UPDATED 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-230100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-230100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW...THEN RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-230100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
925 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-230100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-230100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-230100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
925 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

UPDATED

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-230100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-230100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 22, 5:37 AM AKST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...REMNANT OF LOW THAT MOVED THRU EASTERN GULF LAST
NIGHT IS NOW OVER THE SW YUKON. ANOTHER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE NW GULF IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROF DIGGING SWD INTO SW AK. THE
TROF WILL CLOSE OFF TO AN UPPER LOW JUST SW OF KODIAK THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN THERE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A LOW OVER
THE WRN GULF. SEVERAL SMALLER TROFS WILL MOVE AROUND THIS LOW
INTO THE NRN AND ERN GULF THRU TONIGHT. A LOW OVER THE NE PAC IS
MOVING NE  AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST OF BC THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
RIGHT NOW THE PRECIP IS BECOMING SHOWERY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS...WHERE ARCTIC AIR IS
HANGING ON AND KEEPING A STEADIER SNOW GOING. THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THERE AS S FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR. KEPT
THE WS WARNINGS THERE FOR TODAY. FURTHER S AROUND PAJN...SNOW HAS
BECOME MORE SHOWERY BUT RADAR SUGGESTS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
FREQUENT/HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO MAINTAIN WS
WARNINGS THERE UNTIL THE 9 AM EXPIRATION TIME. THE PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SO ALLOWED THE ADVYS AND
WARNING THERE TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. HOWEVER...THE LOW MOVING NE TO
THE CENTRAL BC COAST WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE PRECIP INTO THE FAR
SRN AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN OR A MIX EXCEPT NEAR HYDER...WHERE A LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED. FOR THE PAYA AREA...THE TROFS MOVING AROUND THE
BROAD LOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL SEND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THAT AREA
FREQUENTLY...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE WS WARNING THERE TODAY. ONE
OF THE TROFS MOVING UP TONIGHT MAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH THE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY...BUT AS THE
TROF MOVES ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT THEY SHOULD PICK BACK UP. THINK
ENOUGH OF A BREAK SHOULD OCCUR TO NOT EXTEND THE WARNING BEYOND
THE CURRENT END TIME OF 4 PM HOWEVER.

 AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY BY TONIGHT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE TOP...SHOULD SEE PRECIP DIMINISH OVER THE
NRN AREA...AND MAY EVEN SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THERE LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT WHERE THE
CLOUDS BREAK SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN NEW SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY AS WELL.

 &&

.LONG TERM...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AT LEAST THROUGH THURS NIGHT SENDING SHORT WAVES INTO
THE PANHANDLE. BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURS AT LEAST 5 DIFFERENT SHORT
WAVES OR LOWS WILL AFFECT THE PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ARRIVING ON TUES.

THIS STRONGER LOW ON TUES IS ACTUALLY A SEPARATE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP BY THE PERSISTENT LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF. WHAT IT DOES AFTER THE TWO SYSTEMS LINK UP IS
STILL UP FOR DEBATE HOWEVER. THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE FAVORING A
DOUBLE LOW, OR EVEN A TRIPLE LOW AT TIMES, STRUCTURE WHERE THE
INDIVIDUAL LOWS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT OF NEARLY EQUAL STRENGTH.
THIS RESULTS IN A SORT OF DOUBLE WHAMMY AS FIRST A 968 MB LOW
RIDES UP THE OUTER COAST TOWARD THE NW ON TUES WITH A SECOND LOW
SLAMMING INTO THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. THE NCEP MODELS ON THE
OTHER HAND ARE TAKING THAT SYSTEM AND FORMING IT INTO THE DOMINATE
LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MB DEEPER THAN THEIR
EUROPEAN COUNTERPARTS. THIS SCENARIO HAS ONE SINGLE PUNCH THAT
ARRIVES DURING THE DAY TUES. WHICH SCENARIO WINS OUT WILL MAINLY BE
DECIDED BY HOW WELL THE LOW HOLDS TOGETHER AFTER BEING STRETCHED
OUT BY A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALOFT ON MON. AT THIS POINT I AM
STRIVING TO STICK WITH THE NCEP APPROACH AS THE WEAKER AND BROADER
PRESSURE PATTER DISPLAYED IN THE EUROPEAN MODELS IS A RESENT
DEVELOPMENT THAT FIRST SHOWED UP IN THE CURRENT 0Z RUN OF THE EC
AND UK. THE PREVIOUS EC RUN SHOWED A SCENARIO MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND NAM. IN EITHER CASE MORE SNOW/RAIN AND WINDS ARE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE PANHANDLE ON TUES AS THIS SYSTEM COMES ASHORE.

FOLLOWING THIS ARE TWO, POSSIBLY THREE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE
REMAINING LOW IN THE NW GULF THROUGH THURS NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES. LATE NEXT WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND FEATURES THE NW GULF LOW FINALLY WEAKENING AWAY, ONLY
TO BE REPLACED BY A DECENT SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SW. TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY POOR SO EXTENDED GRIDS REFLECTED
HPC DATA THAT WAS DERIVED FROM VARIOUS MODEL RESOURCES INCLUDING
ENSEMBLE MEANS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AKZ024-026.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ020>022-
     025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

RWT/EAL

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.