Gale Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

596 
FZAK67 PAJK 220811 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1111 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-221400-
1111 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE E GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE N THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF SAT EVENING AND
REACH THE NE GULF NEAR YAKUTAT BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW GULF LATE SAT INTO
SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ310-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1111 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

516 
FZAK67 PAJK 221225
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NW GULF WILL REMAIN THERE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NE TO THE CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY SUN EVENING AND WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ310-230100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
541 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND
CURVE NWD THRU THE ERN GULF...REACHING THE FAR NE GULF BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA TODAY.
WEAKENING SECOND WRAP OF FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS SRN SE AK WILL DRIFT NWD TO THE CENTRAL AREA
TONIGHT. USED THE 00Z ECMWF DUE TO IT HAVING BEST POSITION OF THE
LOW AS OF 06Z LATE EVENING.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TIME FRAME WILL BE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
SNOW AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE TIME WHEN WEAKENING SECOND
WRAP OF OCCLUDED FRONT WILL COME ASHORE AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY
THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER SNOWFALL WITH THE
INITIAL OCCLUDED FRONT TODAY. THINK SNOW RATIOS OVER THE N WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 TO 1...WITH THE HIGHEST RATIOS OVER THE FAR NRN
AREA. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY FROM 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES FROM 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON TO 12Z TONIGHT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE MAIN PANHANDLE.
AM GOING FOR A 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL IN THE PAJN/PAGS/PAOH
AREAS...6 TO 8 INCHES AROUND PAEL...5 TO 7 INCHES NEAR PAGY...AND
8 TO 11 INCHES AROUND PAHN. HAVE ISSUED OR EXTENDED WARNINGS FOR
THOSE AREAS...WITH MOST STARTING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE PAOH
AREA WAS LEFT AS AN EXTENSION TO CURRENT WARNING ALBEIT THERE
WILL BE LIGHTER SNOW TODAY. WANTED TO AVOID A CANCEL/ISSUE
HEADLINE CONFLICT THERE. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HYDER AREA WARNING
GOING THRU TONIGHT FOR SAME REASON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW THERE
LIKELY TONIGHT WHEN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVERRUNS THEIR COLD
AIRMASS. KEPT SOME OF THE OTHER WARNINGS GOING THRU 18 OR 21Z
TODAY. SOME OF THOSE AREAS MAY NEED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PAGN AND PAPG AREAS. ALLOWED THE
WARNING FOR ZONE 27 TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OR BECOME
MIXED WITH RAIN...AND THIS WILL OCCUR IN ZONES 28 AND 23 TODAY.

 OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU TONIGHT
FROM S TO N. WILL HAVE MENTION OF STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 23 AND
27 AS WEAKENING SECOND WRAP MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL HAVE NO OTHER STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS THE OTHER
AREAS THAT SHOULD HAVE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE A WS WARNING. WILL
KEEP WIND CHILL ADVY FOR WHITE PASS GOING THRU NOON TODAY. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...START OF THE PERIOD IS MAINLY CONCERNED WITH THE
REMAINS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM. THE SECOND WRAP AND THE
OVERRUNNING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY INTO SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD BE SEEING DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AS THE SECOND
WRAP MOVES FARTHER NORTH.

 THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A POLAR VORTEX
THAT WILL SET ITSELF UP IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AND COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX SENDING MORE SHORT WAVES AND OCEAN MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ANOTHER SNOW MAKER
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE (BELOW FREEZING) AND AT 850 MB
(-6 TO -8 C) FOR SNOW. WIND WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS GALES ARE
BROUGHT TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND CLARENCE STRAIT, AND STRONG
WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND
KETCHIKAN. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A FEW PROBLEM WORKING THIS
SYSTEM OUT. GFS IS MORE OF THE ODD MAN OUT AS FAR AS STRUCTURE
GOING FOR A MORE SINGULAR LOW RATHER THEN A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE
THAT THE OTHER MODELS ARE DISPLAYING. SPEED IS ALSO A BIT PROBLEM
WITH THE NAM DISPLAYING A BIT OF A FASTER SPEED THAN THE EC.

 BEYOND THIS, MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS APART MORE AS THE MODELS TRY
TO DEAL WITH THE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES LANCING INTO THE PANHANDLE
FROM THE W AND SW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST
OF THIS APPEARS TO BE SNOW WITH RAIN MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AT TIMES.

 DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE EC FOR MODEL UPDATES IN THE MID RANGE
FOR ITS GOOD CONSISTENCY AND INITIALIZATION. PAST TUES DID NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES AS THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE FIRST 24 TO
48 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM. ANY CHANGES OUT IN THE EXTENDED USED
HPC DATA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ024-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST
     SUNDAY FOR AKZ020-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AKST
     SUNDAY FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ021-029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM AKST
     SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKST SUNDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033>036-041>043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-052.

&&

RWT/EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
01/21/2012  M3.0 INCH                           AK   UNKNOWN

            3 INCHES MEASURED AT 6 AM AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT 10 PM-6
            AM. AN ESTIMATED 3-5 INCHES AROUND THE KETCHIKAN AREA
            OVERNIGHT.

0900 AM     SNOW             METLAKATLA              55.12N 132.58W
01/21/2012  M3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3 INCHES MEASURED AT THE WSO.

&&

KAV