Small Craft Advisory 550, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
407 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED HURRICANE
FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
ALONG 150W INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND...AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. SOME STRONG GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
AND OUT OF BAYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
PASS TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
AS WELL FROM THE SOUTH. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BLOW
THE STRONGEST THROUGH GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNELED
TERRAIN AND BAYS.

A STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM ICY CAPE TO
CAPE SUCKLING...WHILE GALE WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST AND FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS.

PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY OVER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
24 HOUR TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES. EXPECT RAPID
RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IN RESPONSE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

MAINLY USED THE NAM FOR WIND TWEAKS...ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS
WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THIS NEXT LOW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS IT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND TONIGHT FOR AKZ017-021.
	 STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
 	 AKZ018.
 	 STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
 	 AKZ022-023.
 	 STRONG WIND TONIGHT FOR AKZ024-025.
	 STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
 	 AKZ026.
	 STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
	 AKZ027.
 	 STRONG WIND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.

MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
	 GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033>036-041>043-051-053.
	 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032.

&&