Small Craft Advisory 548, NWS Juneau, AK

389 
FZAK52 PAJK 261137
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270100-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 961 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG 150W AND DEEPEN TO 952 MB BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TO BE
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-270100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL.
SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-270100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING
TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-270100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS
SOUND...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-270100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-270100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
435 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE SET TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH GULF COAST ZONE
52 BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS
EVENING, A SECOND SUCH STORM FORCE FRONT WILL OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 MORE ABOUT THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM: STORM FOR MARINE ZONES
52 AND 310 AND GALES FOR REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
SEEMS ON TRACK. THE WEAKENING OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND AT
LANDFALL 06Z-09Z TONIGHT WILL BE LARGELY DUE TO THE FRONT GOING
ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BE IN
CLARENCE STRAIT BOTH DUE TO THE SHALLOWER TERRAIN AND TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE STRAIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THU BUT THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS INJECTED INTO THE WESTERLIES.
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS IN DEPTH
AND A FEW MILES IN THE LOCATION OF AN INTENSE DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF AK WED NIGHT.

EXPECT A 952MB LOW TO BE 100 NM SE OF KODIAK WITH A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHING THE SE AK COAST EARLY WED NIGHT. GALES AND SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OUTER COAST WITH GALES AND SMALL
CRAFT WINDS IN THE INSIDE WATERS. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE THU AND FRI BUT SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
RAINFALL ARE NOT LIKELY WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY
SINGLE MODEL FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE TROPICAL ENERGY
REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. HPC GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD A
MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SCENARIO FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>036-041>043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032.

&&

JBT/CFD