Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 305, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Sep 26, 2012, 3:07 PM AKDT. It was in force for 13 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 26, 2012, 3:07 PM AKDT (23:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 27, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
736 FZAK52 PAJK 262307 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-271715- 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A 952 MB HURRICANE FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG 150W AND WEAKEN TO 963 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-271715- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN LATE. .FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ042-271715- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-271715- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-271715- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ052-271715- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 307 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
432 FZAK52 PAJK 270053 AAA CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-271400- 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A 952 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL TRACK N TO JUST E OF KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THU NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-271400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN. .THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN LATE. .FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ042-271400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-271400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-271400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ052-271400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 445 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
682 FZAK52 PAJK 270437 AAB CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-271600- 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A 952 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL TRACK N TO JUST E OF KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THU NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-271600- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN LATE. .FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ042-271600- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-271600- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .THU...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-271600- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN...BECOMING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .THU...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ052-271600- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 836 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN...BECOMING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. .THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
358 FZAK52 PAJK 271205 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-280100- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A 962 MB LOW JUST E OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS NE TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THU NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ON THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH FRIDAY. $$ PKZ041-280100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. SW SWELL. .FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ042-280100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. SHOWERS. .FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ043-280100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ051-280100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ052-280100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 27 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 26, 6:17 AM AKDT, 8 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 26, 6:17 AM AKDT, 8 hours 50 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
617 AM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES THE SECOND
AND STRONGER OF TWO FRONTS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN AS MANY
DAYS. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY OVER NIGHT HAS SHOWN A VERY WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WITH A
BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF.
NORTH OF THE CLOUD SHIELD, SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST
ONE THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR COAST WATERS
FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH ALONG 150W. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PEAK RIGHT
AROUND THE TIME THE FRONT TRACKS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
EASTERLY 60 KT WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN MARINE ZONE 52 BETWEEN
ICY BAY AND CAPE SUCKLING WITH 45 KT GALES EXTENDING DOWN TO NEAR
THE DIXON ENTRANCE. ALSO HAVE INCLUDED A STORM WARNING FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT FOR TONIGHT. GALES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH RIGHT
AROUND 80 KTS, SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE MARINE WINDS. LOW
LEVEL JET ALSO INDICATING A SECOND WRAP OF SIMILAR STRENGTH BUT
THAT FEATURE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WEAKENS. AS THE FRONT COMES ASHORE,
IT WILL NOT STALL ON THE OUTER COAST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH TONIGHT SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT, SO HAVE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES IN THE PUBLIC ZONES FORECAST.
GRADIENT FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS PRESENTED ONE OF THE
GREATER CHALLENGES IN PUTTING TOGETHER THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT REPEATEDLY, WITH WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL GOING FROM SOUTH 25 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING TO NORTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE THE
SOUTH AFTER THE FRONT HAS COME ASHORE AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY OVER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES. EXPECT
RAPID RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IN RESPONSE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.
USED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND.
BLENDED NAM AND GEM FOR POP AND QPF FIELDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID
RANGE WITH THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FILLING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SE AK
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS
LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS LARGE SPREADS IN THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS ALONG WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE WAS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST FROM DAY 6 THROUGH 7. IN THE MID RANGE THE NAM/EC HAVE
BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL SO USED A BLEND OF THE TWO THROUGH DAY 4.
DID A USED A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/EC ON DAY 5 AS THE TWO MODELS HAVE
AGREED SOME ON THE TRACK OF A LOW THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE STRONG WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL BE STILL OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BUT HAVE PUSHED EAST OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND SEND A STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SO WITH THAT SAID...INCREASE THE WINDS
TO GALES OVER LYNN CANAL AND SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE REST OF THE
INNER CHANNELS. OVERLAND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING BUT THEY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR SKAGWAY WHERE STRONG GUSTS TO 45
MPH WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ONCE THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST
IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE GALES AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL RELAX SOME THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER LYNN CANAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE REST
OF THE INSIDE WATERS. SEA HEIGHT OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 20 FEET RANGE BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAY
FOUR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF SPREADS SHORT
WAVE TROF ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE ANY BREAK IN THE PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE
TREND FOR DRIER AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK STILL SEEMS ON TRACK BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ025-026-028.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ024.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017-
021>023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-052.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033>035-041>043-051-053.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032.
&&
FRITSCH/ABJThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 60 hr | |
| Sep 25, 10:04 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 6 hr | |
| Sep 26, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Sep 26, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 48 hr | |
| Sep 26, 9:35 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 6 hr | |
| Sep 26, 3:06 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 37 hr | |
| Sep 26, 3:08 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 37 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.