Small Craft Advisory 321, NWS Juneau, AK

522 
FZAK51 PAJK 140016 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-141400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF SUN NIGHT AND ON SHORE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MON.  

$$

PKZ011-141400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-141400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-141400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-141400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-141400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-141400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
415 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
3 FT SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-141400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-141400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-141400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-141400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-141400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

608 
FZAK51 PAJK 141133
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-150100-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E TO THE
NE GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUE MORNING THEN DISSIPATE TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED.  

$$

PKZ011-150100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING LATE.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-150100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING LATE.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-150100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT OR LESS LATE. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-150100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-150100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ031-150100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-150100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-150100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT OR LESS LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-150100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-150100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-150100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING
LATE. 
.TUE...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...A MATURE 1008 MB NEAR PADQ IS INTERACTING WITH A
CYCLOGENTIC SYSTEM TO THE SE. THIS CYCLOGENETIC WAVE HAS A
FRONTAL INFLECTION ABOUT 200 NM SE OF PADQ AT THIS TIME, BASED ON
THE INTERPRETATION OF THE IR LOOP AND RELATIONSHIP TO MODEL
FIELDS. GFS IS EASY TO RECONCILE WITH THIS STAGE OF CYCLONE
EVOLUTION, WITH EC A GOOD SECOND. THE CYCLOGENTIC LOW WILL DEEPEN
TO ABOUT 1008 MB 100 NM S OF PAWD ABT 09Z THIS EVENING, AS THE
ORIGINAL LOW WEAKENS. IT HAS VALUES BETWEEN THE NAM AND EC
MODELS. THE QPF VALUES FOR THE PAYA VCNTY WILL BE MODERATE
FMH1 (WHAT THE PUBLIC  CALLS HEAVY RAIN) BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON).

 WE ARE GOING TO NAME THE FRONTAL WAVE "WAVE ONE". A SECOND
FRONTAL WAVE INVOF 45/142 WILL BE CALLED "WAVE TWO".

 THE PAIR OF LOWS DISCUSSED ABOVE HAS AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE GLFALSK AND ALL SE AK. THE MOST IMPORTANT
MODIFICATION TO THIS CIRCULATION IS A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG THE
PNHDL FM THE S. THIS RIDGE WAS INITIALLY BUILT UP IN THE LEE OF A
CDFNT THAT MADE LANDFALL OF THE PNHDL LAST NIGHT. THAT FRONT NOW
HAS REACHED NRN B.C. BUT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL WAVE TWO WITH AN
INFLECTION POINT AT ABT 45/142. THE RIDGE ALONG THE PNHDL IS NOW
BEING INTENSIFIED BY WAVE TWO.

 MODELS: GFS AND EC WERE BOTH HAD A GOOD INITIALIZATION BASED ON
500 MB VORT TO IR. THE NAM WAS A GOOD THIRD PLACE BUT WAS USED
FOR ONLY A MINORITY OF FIELDS AS THAT MODEL MSLP SEEMS TO NOT BE
RESPONDING TO THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE BLDG ALONG THE PNHDL FM THE
S AS WELL AS THE GFS.

 THE CYCLOGENTIC SYSTEM WITH WAVE ONE HAS THICKNESS VALUES LOW
ENOUGH TO HAVE SNOW MIXED IN TO THE RAINFALL IN WRN ZONE
17 MONDAY, BUT NOT AT PAYA.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...GOOD UPPER LEVEL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEKEND. AGREEMENT A LITTLE LESS SO AT THE SURFACE. A LOW
CURRENTLY FORMING ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS FEATURE IS NOT VERY STRONG OR DEEP, SMALL MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TRACK WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT
ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE LOW CROSSES THE OUTER COAST.
GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH ALL REMAINING MODELS CLUSTERED FARTHER
TO THE EAST AND FASTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST MID MORNING TUESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST REFLECTS THIS ALREADY
AND HAVE KEPT IT SO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE OUTER COAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY, THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY ON
FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

NEXT WELL ORGANIZED FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE OUTER COAST NEXT
WEEKEND WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL MARINE ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

 USED ECMWF FOR PRESSURE AND POP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS BIASED TOWARDS 12Z ECMWF THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN
GFS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED HPC, ECMWF,
AND GFS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRAIGHT HPC FOR DAY 8.
TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH BIAS CORRECTED GFS40 AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-034-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

JBT/FRITSCH