Gale Warning 240, NWS Juneau, AK

441 
FZAK52 PAJK 140039 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
435 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-141400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF SUN NIGHT AND ON SHORE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MON.  

$$

PKZ041-141400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-141400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-141400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
435 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-141400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
435 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-141400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
435 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

588 
FZAK52 PAJK 141131
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E TO THE
NE GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUE MORNING THEN DISSIPATE TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED.  

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...A MATURE 1008 MB NEAR PADQ IS INTERACTING WITH A
CYCLOGENTIC SYSTEM TO THE SE. THIS CYCLOGENETIC WAVE HAS A
FRONTAL INFLECTION ABOUT 200 NM SE OF PADQ AT THIS TIME, BASED ON
THE INTERPRETATION OF THE IR LOOP AND RELATIONSHIP TO MODEL
FIELDS. GFS IS EASY TO RECONCILE WITH THIS STAGE OF CYCLONE
EVOLUTION, WITH EC A GOOD SECOND. THE CYCLOGENTIC LOW WILL DEEPEN
TO ABOUT 1008 MB 100 NM S OF PAWD ABT 09Z THIS EVENING, AS THE
ORIGINAL LOW WEAKENS. IT HAS VALUES BETWEEN THE NAM AND EC
MODELS. THE QPF VALUES FOR THE PAYA VCNTY WILL BE MODERATE
FMH1 (WHAT THE PUBLIC  CALLS HEAVY RAIN) BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON).

 WE ARE GOING TO NAME THE FRONTAL WAVE "WAVE ONE". A SECOND
FRONTAL WAVE INVOF 45/142 WILL BE CALLED "WAVE TWO".

 THE PAIR OF LOWS DISCUSSED ABOVE HAS AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE GLFALSK AND ALL SE AK. THE MOST IMPORTANT
MODIFICATION TO THIS CIRCULATION IS A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG THE
PNHDL FM THE S. THIS RIDGE WAS INITIALLY BUILT UP IN THE LEE OF A
CDFNT THAT MADE LANDFALL OF THE PNHDL LAST NIGHT. THAT FRONT NOW
HAS REACHED NRN B.C. BUT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL WAVE TWO WITH AN
INFLECTION POINT AT ABT 45/142. THE RIDGE ALONG THE PNHDL IS NOW
BEING INTENSIFIED BY WAVE TWO.

 MODELS: GFS AND EC WERE BOTH HAD A GOOD INITIALIZATION BASED ON
500 MB VORT TO IR. THE NAM WAS A GOOD THIRD PLACE BUT WAS USED
FOR ONLY A MINORITY OF FIELDS AS THAT MODEL MSLP SEEMS TO NOT BE
RESPONDING TO THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE BLDG ALONG THE PNHDL FM THE
S AS WELL AS THE GFS.

 THE CYCLOGENTIC SYSTEM WITH WAVE ONE HAS THICKNESS VALUES LOW
ENOUGH TO HAVE SNOW MIXED IN TO THE RAINFALL IN WRN ZONE
17 MONDAY, BUT NOT AT PAYA.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...GOOD UPPER LEVEL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEKEND. AGREEMENT A LITTLE LESS SO AT THE SURFACE. A LOW
CURRENTLY FORMING ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS FEATURE IS NOT VERY STRONG OR DEEP, SMALL MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TRACK WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT
ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AS THE LOW CROSSES THE OUTER COAST.
GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH ALL REMAINING MODELS CLUSTERED FARTHER
TO THE EAST AND FASTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST MID MORNING TUESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST REFLECTS THIS ALREADY
AND HAVE KEPT IT SO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE OUTER COAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY, THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY ON
FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

NEXT WELL ORGANIZED FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE OUTER COAST NEXT
WEEKEND WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL MARINE ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

 USED ECMWF FOR PRESSURE AND POP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS BIASED TOWARDS 12Z ECMWF THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN
GFS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED HPC, ECMWF,
AND GFS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRAIGHT HPC FOR DAY 8.
TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH BIAS CORRECTED GFS40 AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-034-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

JBT/FRITSCH