Small Craft Advisory 286, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A 996 MB
LOW JUST SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF PUSHES WELL ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH MIN GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO
15 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SOLID SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN INNER CHANNELS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES...AS WELL AS
ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH PREVAIL ALONG THE
PANHANDLE COAST...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND SLOWLY TRACKS EAST TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THERE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DECREASING POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN MOST
AREAS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM12 FOR
A BETTER DETAILING OF THE LOW HANGING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.

THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SUBSIDE GALES TO SMALL
CRAFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE.
CENTRAL COAST AND PANHANDLE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVED
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A GENERALLY GOOD IDEA OF THE
FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE
A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMATION OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. A NEW LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE BERING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK TO EARLY
WEEKEND ON THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

OVERALL THE GENERAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF WITH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW CHANNELS/JET STREAMS FROM
THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN ALTERATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS OVERALL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO ABOUT MID WEEK WITH IT
LOWERING AS IT HEADS TO THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOWERING AS HPC GUIDANCE
WAS HEDGED WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER SEEING SOME FRESHER
INFORMATION.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-033-035-041-042-052.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK