Small Craft Advisory 262, NWS Juneau, AK

190 
FZAK51 PAJK 192028 CCA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1228 PM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-201345-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST WEAKENING BY FRIDAY EVENING.  

$$

PKZ011-201345-
GLACIER BAY-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-201345-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ013-201345-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-201345-
ICY STRAIT-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

CORRECTED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-201345-
CROSS SOUND-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-201345-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-201345-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-201345-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-201345-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-201345-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-201345-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1143 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKDT THU APR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROF LIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREA PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE SE GULF
BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER
LAND AND WITH SOUTH WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20KT OVER THE MARINE
WATERS.

 THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NW THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY BUT THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE AND THE
CLOUDS DECREASE WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX
THROUGH THE MORNING AND BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 KT.

 AS THE DEVELOPING LOW LIFTS INTO THE SE GULF TONIGHT IT WILL
LIFT A WEATHER FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND KEEP A HIGH THREAT OF PRECIP. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
SEE JUST A CHANCE AS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE DRY SIDE BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE
AND INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL SEE STRONG GUSTS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 30 MPH AND
INCREASE TO 45 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA ALONG WITH A 55KT LLJ AT 850MB. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES AND SOME HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS.

 THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A BLEND OF
THE GFS/EC THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES
NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOLID GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. STRONG WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

 BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...MODEL SPREADS BECOME LARGER WITH WEAKENING
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SHIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES HINTING A WEAK LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LEANED OVER THE HPC APPROACH OF HEAVY WEIGHTING ON THE ECMWF AND
ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-035-043.

&&

ABJ/AHN