Gale Warning 201, NWS Juneau, AK

322 
FZAK67 PAJK 192315
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 19 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-201400-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 19 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST WEAKENING BY FRIDAY EVENING.  

$$

PKZ310-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 140W...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS
12 FT. SE SWELL LATE. RAIN. W OF 140W...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

821 
FZAK67 PAJK 201130
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 20 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-210100-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 20 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SE GULF WILL TRACK N ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER B.C.
TONIGHT WILL EXPAND W TO SE AK THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-210100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 20 2012 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 PM AKDT WED APR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING 995 MB LOW JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT THEN SHEARS APART OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THURSDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR
43/150 THAT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN INTO THE UPPER 970S
JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRST WRAP OF OCCLUSION HAS WENT ALOFT AND IS OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP BASED ON OBS AND RADAR.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH AND WILL JUST
SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A
SECOND WRAP IS NOW OVER DIXON ENTRANCE AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS LOW
MOVES NW WILL HAVE BETTER GRADIENT ORIENTATION TO PRODUCE SMCR SE
WIND AND 30-35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO THE EVENING. THE
FRONT REACHES FREDERICK SOUND AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ICY STRAIT-
JUNEAU AREA LATE TONIGHT. FRONT APPEARS TO STALL HERE AND SHEARS
APART THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND A CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL GOING TO RAIN LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

 WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE NE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY KEEPING NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNNY WITH DOWN
SLOPE WARMING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S AND PROBABLY INTO
THE LOWER 60S AT A FEW LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS A BIT COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AND A BIT WARMER
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR PAYA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO UPPER 20S
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE
OFFSET BY A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE INTO
15-20 KT RANGE AGAIN TONIGHT. E-W CHANNELS INCREASE TO A SMCR
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW MOVES AWAY.
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH WIND WILL COME AROUND TO SE AND WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE EASING IN
THE MORNING.

 SECOND STRONGER LOW WILL BEGINING TO IMPACT OUR AREA LATE IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT LOW CENTER TO MOVE TO ABOUT 150 NM WEST
OF HAIDA GWAII THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. EXPECT GALES IN PKZ041-042 BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID
SMCR WINDS THROUGH CLARENCE AND SUMNER STRAITS. WITH EASTERLY
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL HOLD SHORT OF A STRONG WIND HEADLINE
FOR AKZ027 AND JUST KEEP G35 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDDED FRONT
WRAPS INTO DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 OVERALL HAD GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. USED
NAM12 TO UPDATE PRES AND WIND AND BLENDED GFS/EC INTO POPS AND
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAT ROTATES
AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF AK AND THROUGH SE AK
FRI AND SAT. THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD GROWS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR TREND OF WEAKENING
THE UPPER LOW AND MOVING IT EASTWARD. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS A NEW UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT THERE IS ONLY POOR CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK. LATEST RUNS OF THE
EC AND GFS HAVE CONVERGED SOME TO MOVE A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE TOWARD NORTHERN B.C. ON MON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LOW THAT CROSSES THE GULF LATE TUE-WED.

AT THE SURFACE WINDS A 979 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO BE JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE EARLY THU NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REACHING GALE
FORCE BY LATE THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS AND CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD THEN DIMINSH TO
MAINLY SHOWERS BY SUN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-035-036-043-051-052.

&&

MM/CFD