Small Craft Advisory 196, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...A LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING TO THE EAST, BUT WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD TURN THIS
EVENING. FAIRLY RAGGED ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD WILL
MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE PRESENT
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE OF AN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AND GENERATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE MORE OF
A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL MARINE
ZONES SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT NO WIND WARNINGS EXPECTED.

 ASSOCIATED FRONT IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND POORLY SUPPORTED
ALOFT. IN LIGHT OF THIS, QPF VALUES WERE TONED DOWN AND SNOW
TOTALS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE COUNTERED BY A COLDER, OFFSHORE WIND AT
THE SURFACE, SO HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING ALREADY. DAYTIME WARMING TOMORROW
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A TRANSITION BACK TO LIQUID IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, WHERE STRATIFORM TERMINOLOGY
IS RETAINED.

 USED GFS FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL SLOWLY AND BECOME
BROAD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING WEST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF.

 THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC EARLY SUNDAY WILL TRACK EAST AND HEADING
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL
ABSORB THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER
THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
WEST...ALLOWING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR DECREASING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION
MORE SNOW AT NIGHT AND MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

 SOLID SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
THE LOW ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BEGINNING TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS WEST AND SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS ROTATING
ACROSS THE GULF. PREFERRED TO LEAN OVER THE HPC SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A LITTLE WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS A LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 5 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN