Gale Warning 187, NWS Juneau, AK

405 
FZAK52 PAJK 100644 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110045-
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 986 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-110045-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-110045-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT...BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-110045-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT......SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E AND DIMINISHING TO
25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 45 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-110045-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-110045-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
944 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

622 
FZAK52 PAJK 101250
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110100-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 986 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-110100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. W SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-110100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL
IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-110100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND LATE.
SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-110100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-110100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...A LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING TO THE EAST, BUT WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD TURN THIS
EVENING. FAIRLY RAGGED ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD WILL
MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE PRESENT
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE OF AN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AND GENERATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE MORE OF
A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL MARINE
ZONES SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT NO WIND WARNINGS EXPECTED.

 ASSOCIATED FRONT IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND POORLY SUPPORTED
ALOFT. IN LIGHT OF THIS, QPF VALUES WERE TONED DOWN AND SNOW
TOTALS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE COUNTERED BY A COLDER, OFFSHORE WIND AT
THE SURFACE, SO HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING ALREADY. DAYTIME WARMING TOMORROW
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A TRANSITION BACK TO LIQUID IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, WHERE STRATIFORM TERMINOLOGY
IS RETAINED.

 USED GFS FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL SLOWLY AND BECOME
BROAD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING WEST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF.

 THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC EARLY SUNDAY WILL TRACK EAST AND HEADING
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL
ABSORB THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER
THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
WEST...ALLOWING SOME OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR DECREASING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION
MORE SNOW AT NIGHT AND MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

 SOLID SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
THE LOW ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BEGINNING TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS WEST AND SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS ROTATING
ACROSS THE GULF. PREFERRED TO LEAN OVER THE HPC SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A LITTLE WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS A LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 5 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN