Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS Juneau, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAJK 080258 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-082100-
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE ALASKA WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT EVENING. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
MOVE E TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SE
ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-082100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
24 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-082100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 BUILDING
TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
26 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-082100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-082100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-082100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
557 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

398 
FZAK52 PAJK 081244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-090100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE E TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-090100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT GALE LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-090100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-090100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.

.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-090100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING S
LATE. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-090100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE... E GALE TO 45 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 19
FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
204 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW OVER THE SW
GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THERE SUN.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE E TO THE ERN GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET AS THEY WERE HANDLING THE
MAIN FEATURES THE BEST.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST AND WITH A DEEP LAYER
SSW FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY STEADY PRECIP EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT AS HEAVY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP HAS
BEEN. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO RAISE SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE FAR NRN AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUCH THAT THE SNOW NOW FALLING AROUND PAGY SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN BY TIME NEW FORECAST IS ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AROUND HYDER WILL BE A TRICKIER CALL...BUT
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH WARMING JUST OFF THE SFC TO HELP CHANGE PRECIP
TO RAIN THERE BY FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME AS WELL. AM NOT PLANNING
ANY EXTENSIONS TO THE WS WARNINGS OVER THE N WITH LIGHTER PRECIP
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT WHITE PASS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...PROBABLY AROUND 2-4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR WHITE PASS SUN.

 AS FOR WINDS...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER FROPA MOST
AREAS...BUT LYNN CANAL AREA WILL JUMP UP TO GALES BY LATE TONIGHT
AS SLY PRES GRADS INCREASE. WILL ALSO NEED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE
FOR PAGY AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND SCA LEVEL SE WINDS...WITH GALES OVER THE SERN AND CENTRAL
GULF AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. THERE WILL
BE STRONGER WLY WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...WITH GALES LIKELY TO RETURN THEN.

 OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING COLD AIR OVER THE FAR N IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...SO THEY
WILL SEE A MORE DRAMATIC JUMP IN TEMPS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT INTO SUN. LEADING EDGE OF
COLDER AIR SHOULD REACH CENTRAL GULF SUN AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO THE LOW-MID 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES AS AT
LEAST TWO MORE STORMS APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THESE
STORMS WILL TAKES THEIR TURNS DRAWING WARM MOIST AIR UP INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THEM AND THEN DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN BEHIND IT. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AS ITS
REMAINING LOW PETERS OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY. BEHIND IT MORE COLD AIR IS HEADING SE WITH THE COLDEST
AIR ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

 THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LINGER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS PUSHING
WARM AIR BACK INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUES. THICKNESS RIDGE
PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT MAY BE TRICKY AS THE LINGERING COLD AIR FROM MON
NIGHT MAY START OFF THE PRECIP TUES AFTERNOON AS SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR GETS IN TO START
CHANGEOVER WED.

 BEHIND THE FRONT IS YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR, BUT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE STAYING
POWER AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A DECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK BY NEXT WEEKEND OVER
THE ALASKA INTERIOR AND YUKON WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW SCENARIO AND
COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLE.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND SOME
INCONSISTENCIES SHOWING UP BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. GFS AND UKMET
SHOWED THE BEST INITIALIZATION OUT OF THE MODELS TODAY WITH GFS
AND 12Z EC SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECIDED
TO USE THE GFS AND UK FOR ADJUSTMENTS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
AND GFS/12Z EC FOR TUES AND TUES NIGHT. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR
UPDATES PAST WED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-023-
     025>029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-051>053.

&&

RWT/EAL