Gale Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

202 
FZAK67 PAJK 081245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-090100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE E TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-090100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...EAST OF 140W...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST OF 140W...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...EAST OF 140W...W WIND 25 KT. WEST OF 140W...W WIND 35
KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
204 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW OVER THE SW
GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THERE SUN.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE E TO THE ERN GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET AS THEY WERE HANDLING THE
MAIN FEATURES THE BEST.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST AND WITH A DEEP LAYER
SSW FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY STEADY PRECIP EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT AS HEAVY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP HAS
BEEN. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO RAISE SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE FAR NRN AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUCH THAT THE SNOW NOW FALLING AROUND PAGY SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN BY TIME NEW FORECAST IS ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AROUND HYDER WILL BE A TRICKIER CALL...BUT
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH WARMING JUST OFF THE SFC TO HELP CHANGE PRECIP
TO RAIN THERE BY FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME AS WELL. AM NOT PLANNING
ANY EXTENSIONS TO THE WS WARNINGS OVER THE N WITH LIGHTER PRECIP
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT WHITE PASS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...PROBABLY AROUND 2-4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR WHITE PASS SUN.

 AS FOR WINDS...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER FROPA MOST
AREAS...BUT LYNN CANAL AREA WILL JUMP UP TO GALES BY LATE TONIGHT
AS SLY PRES GRADS INCREASE. WILL ALSO NEED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE
FOR PAGY AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND SCA LEVEL SE WINDS...WITH GALES OVER THE SERN AND CENTRAL
GULF AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. THERE WILL
BE STRONGER WLY WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...WITH GALES LIKELY TO RETURN THEN.

 OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING COLD AIR OVER THE FAR N IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...SO THEY
WILL SEE A MORE DRAMATIC JUMP IN TEMPS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT INTO SUN. LEADING EDGE OF
COLDER AIR SHOULD REACH CENTRAL GULF SUN AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO THE LOW-MID 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES AS AT
LEAST TWO MORE STORMS APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THESE
STORMS WILL TAKES THEIR TURNS DRAWING WARM MOIST AIR UP INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THEM AND THEN DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN BEHIND IT. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AS ITS
REMAINING LOW PETERS OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY. BEHIND IT MORE COLD AIR IS HEADING SE WITH THE COLDEST
AIR ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

 THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LINGER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS PUSHING
WARM AIR BACK INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUES. THICKNESS RIDGE
PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT MAY BE TRICKY AS THE LINGERING COLD AIR FROM MON
NIGHT MAY START OFF THE PRECIP TUES AFTERNOON AS SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR GETS IN TO START
CHANGEOVER WED.

 BEHIND THE FRONT IS YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR, BUT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE STAYING
POWER AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A DECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK BY NEXT WEEKEND OVER
THE ALASKA INTERIOR AND YUKON WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW SCENARIO AND
COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLE.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND SOME
INCONSISTENCIES SHOWING UP BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. GFS AND UKMET
SHOWED THE BEST INITIALIZATION OUT OF THE MODELS TODAY WITH GFS
AND 12Z EC SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECIDED
TO USE THE GFS AND UK FOR ADJUSTMENTS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
AND GFS/12Z EC FOR TUES AND TUES NIGHT. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR
UPDATES PAST WED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-023-
     025>029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-051>053.

&&

RWT/EAL