Small Craft Advisory 158, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
418 PM AKST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
BE GIVING WAY TO THE EAST AS THE STRONG FRONT OVER BRISTOL BAY
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AN TO THE SOUTH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF MARINE ZONE 310 BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
REGION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ALLOWING ONE MORE COOL
NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THIS EVENING WILL SEE
INCREASING/THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS PRIMARILY FOR THE AREA
WEST OF ICY BAY TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY MORE GENERAL CLOUDINESS AND
SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...AND MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING STARTS OFF WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35KT THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL. A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND ITS ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW...TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL START IN THE YAKUTAT AREA FIRST
THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS 6 TO 11
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER AREAS OVER THE NORTH WILL SEE ABOUT 3
TO 5 INCHES AND MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AS TIME GETS CLOSER. THE LOW
WILL BECOME STATIONARY IN THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE
A SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH PRECIP LIKELY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW IS THEN ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE GULF FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM AND EC
INITIALIZED THE BEST AND WERE USED FOR MOST UPDATES THEN
TRANSITIONED TO HPC. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A MIX OR CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN AND KEEP SNOW TOTALS BELOW
WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA. ALSO THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY KEEP IT MIXED A BIT LONGER AREAWIDE AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER DEWPOINT VALUES LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN AND
RETURN PRECIP TO MAINLY SNOW. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-041>043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON