Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX PATTERN IS SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. PARENT LOW ABUT 52/150 HAS ONE LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE HORTEN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER DEVELOPING
FEATURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC ON THE LONG FRONT THAT IS DEVELOPING
AND PULLING NORTH. MODELS WERE INDICATING A RAPID DEEPENING  AND
IS TO MOVE NORTH TO JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE AROUND 12Z AND A
DEPTH AROUND 973 MB OR SO. A TIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH IT WILL
SPREAD STORM FORCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT AND GALES INTO THE OTHER
SURROUNDING MARINE AREAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AREA. AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE NORTH WINDS (UP TO GALES) WILL
REDEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION PATTERN A LITTLE DIFFICULT AS WELL. MODELS TRYING
TO SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD WARM UP OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH THE
RAIN LINE MOVING MOVING NORTH OF JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS TONIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE HELD THE LINE JUST SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SHOVED THE THE LINE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
FORECAST IS FOR SNOW AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THERE. WILL MENTION
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPATIAL WATER IS 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH ITS MID TROPICAL SOURCE REGION.

HAVE JUST GONE WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR UP TO 55 MPH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT AS SOME EARLIER THINKING HAD THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEIGHT
WIND EVENT FOR THE REGION AROUND SOUTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.

.LONG TERM...HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN OVER A RANGE OF SCALES.
CHANGES ARE SMALL AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

BY 12Z SAT THE EC IS SYNOPTICALLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS FOR A
TRIPLE POINT MOVG N INTO THE ERN GLFALSK.  IS ONE SENSE THIS IS
NOT A LARGE DIFFERENCE BECAUSE OF HOW FAST THE PROGRESSION IS
18Z SAT A 960 MB SHOULD BE ABOUT 150 NM SE OF PADQ ALBEIT THE MODEL
SPREAD IS LARGE ON LOCATION.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ023-028-029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/JBT