Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...OLD LOW HAS MOVED INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IS
WEAKENING. THE SECOND WRAP OF THE OCCLUSION CONTINUES TO BRING
RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PAYA. A 992 LOW IN THE THE SOUTH
GULF MOVES NW TONIGHT TO JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ON SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
THEN PULLS BACK TO THE NW BY LATE TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN...MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE A QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES COVER ALL SOUTHEAST ALASKA GOING TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN NW OF THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE.

STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WITH
SECOND LOW LIFTING NW AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN STEEP
TERRAIN. SHOULD SEE WIND RE-INCREASE TO MAX GALE BY LATE EVENING
FOR PKZ052 AND 310 BUT WILL STAY BELOW GALE ELSEWHERE. PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH FIRST
FRONT EXITING AND SECOND FRONT LIFTING NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT
OF QPF. TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ATMO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN FOR NEAR SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS.

SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRONT IN EASTERN GULF WILL SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT CLEARING LATE IN THE NIGHT. WIND
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS AND WILL BE BELOW
SMCR TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND STABLE
ATMO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS APPROACH
FREEZING.

ON SATURDAY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND FRONT SPREAD OVER THE
AREA IN THE MORNING. WIND INCREASES TO MAX GALES FOR NORTH GULF
COAST IN THE MORNING WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO MIN GALES IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SPREADS INTO PAYA BY MID DAY AND TO COASTAL AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL JUST HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING INTO
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A
GENERAL COOLING OF LOWER ATMO.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAINLY FOLLOWED GFS
FOR TIMING.

.SHORT TERM...THE MID RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD PARTIALLY
STABLE. THE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA REGION. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO
MAX SMALL CRAFT TO MIN GALES MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST. THEN THE RIDGE FEATURE IS THE MAIN ONE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BAND WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

USED EC GFS BLEND THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BACK TO HPC SOLUTION FOR
THE LATER SECTION TO TRY AND STABILIZE ANY MAJOR RUN TO RUN
OPERATIONAL RUNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO MONDAY.. THEN LOWERING AS EXTENDED
PORTIONS TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>036-053.

&&

MM/BEZENEK