Gale Warning 143, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 11, 2012, 1:28 PM AKST (22:28 UTC)

Expired

Feb 11, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

054 
FZAK52 PAJK 112228 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP TO 994 MB 200 NM S OF OCEAN CAPE
BY NOON AND WILL MOVE N TO ICY BAY IN THE EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. 
RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT SHIFTING TO SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
128 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 11, 4:53 AM AKST, 8 hours 35 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
453 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SHORT TERM... FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS A DEVELOPING
WAVE ON A THE MAIN FRONT NEAR 50N 143W AT 12Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL  AFFECT BOTH WIND AND PRECIP...BUT SE REMAINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEM COMING UP. YOU HAVE TO ASK WHERE IS
THE COLD AIR...PARTICULARLY ALOFT. AT 500 MB -40C IS WAY BACK SW
OF ATTU AND -44C AT THE KURILES. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT IS EVIDENT
AS SHOWERS ROUGHLY 45N155W AT THE EXIT OF A STRONG WESTERLY
CYCLONIC JET FROM CENTRAL JAPAN. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS CLEARLY
MOVED E AS PER CIRRUS MOVING OVR THE PANHANDLE AND A SHOT OF SNOW
THEN RAIN MOVED INTO THE YAKUTAT AREA.

 CLEAR SKIES OVER MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED RADIATIVE
COOLING EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG. MANY WINDS WERE CALM AND AT LEAST
HALF OF THE REPORTING STATIONS FROSTED-OUT. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH
COOLING TO PREP FOR SNOW BECAUSE THE PRECIP GENERALLY MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON.

 PREFERRED 11/00Z AK-GFS-40 AS THE MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST. USED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO DETERMINE THE GALES AND A FEW STRONG
WINDS FOR THE LAND AREAS. AGREED WITH ANCHORAGE ON A STORM FORCE
BARRIER JET FOR MARINE PKZ-052. WITH THE WAVE CENTER TRACKING TO
ICY BAY TONIGHT...SOME CONCERN THAT NOT ENUF WIND IN THE
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO LONGER RANGE PERIOD MAINLY DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE PROBLEMS START MON WITH A FRONT STALLING
AND POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ON IT. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND DIRECTION IT GOES AFTER FORMATION. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR E THE FRONT GETS BEFORE THIS OCCURS AS
WELL. CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY CLUSTER OF
MODELS ON A SLOWER MOVING FRONT. FURTHER OUT MODELS DIFFER ON
ANOTHER LOW FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A LOW FOR THEN
BUT MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT THE TRACKS AMONGST THE MODELS VARY
QUITE A BIT. BECOMES AN EVEN BIGGER MESS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

DID MAKE SOME CHANGES MAINLY IN FOR SUN INTO MON. MADE SOME WIND
TWEAKS TO THE INNER CHANNELS SUN INTO SUN EVENING...BUMPING WINDS
UP A BIT ESPECIALLY OVER THE N. ALSO...RAISED POPS SOME FOR SUN
AND SUN NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME MID-LEVEL TROFFING MOVING
THRU SHOULD KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. PTYPE
WILL BECOME TRICKY ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN LOWER
LEVELS. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING DOWN SOME COLDER AIR AND AT
LEAST ALLOW MIXED PRECIP AT TIMES MAINLY FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE
AREA. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MAINLY
NUDGING THEM DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY OVER THE S. FORECAST FROM MON
ON OUT WAS LEFT AS IS FOR THE MOST PART. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ESPECIALLY FROM MON ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND 3 PM TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND 3 PM TODAY THRU AFTERNOON AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND NOON TODAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING PKZ041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADV PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

JC/RWT

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.