Small Craft Advisory 114, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...A 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW JUST ENTERING THE
SOUTHEAST GULF REACHES MAX INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION IS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALONG THE COAST HAVE A COASTAL BARRIER JET THAT REACHES 75KT AND
HAVE ISSUED STORMS FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE
A SECOND BURST OF STORM FORCE WINDS THAT MOVES NORTH THE OTTER
PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 50 MPH FOR COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT ENDING IN PAYA EARLY
FRIDAY.

HAVE A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS PRODUCING
DOWN SLOPE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPS.
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WIND GO SE WITH INCREASING RAIN AND A BRIEF
SOUTHERLY PUSH THAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF STRONG WINDS
THROUGH INNER CHANNELS. ALONG THE COAST THERE IS A BARRIER TYPE
JET. AIR MASS IS GENERALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN
EXCEPT IN FAR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA PAHN AND PAGY COULD PICK
UP SOME BRIEF SNOW JUST AHEAD OF FRONT DUE TO WET BULB COOLING.

A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH THROUGH INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GO
BACK TO EASTERLY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
THAT COULD BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IN THE MORNING WITH
STABILIZING ATMO. WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
MORNING BUT REMOVE POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND NORTHWEST
CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA REGION.
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM 140 TO 160+ KT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PULLING THE TROUGHS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW AIDING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL BE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINS OF THE THE TROUGH WILL THE BE ABLE TO ALTER
COURSE AND THEN LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE.

LATER PORTIONS OF FORECAST I LEFT ALONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-034-035.

&&

MM/BEZENEK