Storm Warning 30, NWS Juneau, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAJK 100801 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110215-
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ041-110215-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-110215-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS
27 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE
MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-110215-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-110215-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-110215-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1101 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

237 
FZAK52 PAJK 101237
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110100-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING 988 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY FRIDAY WILL
MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTHWEST CANADA FRI
NIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT CROSSES THE GULF AND REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST LATE SAT. 

$$

PKZ041-110100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-110100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-110100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-110100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-110100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...A 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW JUST ENTERING THE
SOUTHEAST GULF REACHES MAX INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION IS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALONG THE COAST HAVE A COASTAL BARRIER JET THAT REACHES 75KT AND
HAVE ISSUED STORMS FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE
A SECOND BURST OF STORM FORCE WINDS THAT MOVES NORTH THE OTTER
PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 50 MPH FOR COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT ENDING IN PAYA EARLY
FRIDAY.

HAVE A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS PRODUCING
DOWN SLOPE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPS.
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WIND GO SE WITH INCREASING RAIN AND A BRIEF
SOUTHERLY PUSH THAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF STRONG WINDS
THROUGH INNER CHANNELS. ALONG THE COAST THERE IS A BARRIER TYPE
JET. AIR MASS IS GENERALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN
EXCEPT IN FAR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA PAHN AND PAGY COULD PICK
UP SOME BRIEF SNOW JUST AHEAD OF FRONT DUE TO WET BULB COOLING.

A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH THROUGH INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GO
BACK TO EASTERLY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
THAT COULD BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IN THE MORNING WITH
STABILIZING ATMO. WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
MORNING BUT REMOVE POPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND NORTHWEST
CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA REGION.
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM 140 TO 160+ KT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PULLING THE TROUGHS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS WILL KEEP THE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW AIDING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL BE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AND THE REMAINS OF THE THE TROUGH WILL THE BE ABLE TO ALTER
COURSE AND THEN LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE.

LATER PORTIONS OF FORECAST I LEFT ALONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-034-035.

&&

MM/BEZENEK