High Wind Watch 6, NWS Juneau, AK

431 
WWAK77 PAJK 171346
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
446 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

AKZ025-172015-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0006.121117T2100Z-121118T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0015.121117T1800Z-121118T0900Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
446 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT FOR DOUGLAS AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. 

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON.

* WINDS...GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE
  BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. IF YOU MUST VENTURE
  OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.
  PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOUR VESSELS ARE PROPERLY MOORED IN DOUGLAS
  AND HARRIS HARBORS. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL
  ONTO POWERLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 AM AKST SAT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WITH AT LEAST TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH COLD BAROCLINIC SHIELD HAS MOVE NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE, OPEN CELL CUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN. RADAR
IMAGERY STILL INDICATING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, SO HAVE STUCK
WITH SHOWER TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO RIDGE SOUTH AND INCREASE
THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL AS GALES GOING TO STORMS FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL. ALSO HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR ZONE 25 AND
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...AS WELL AS TAKU INLET...TO 70 KTS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE AND
WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS, FREEZING SPRAY NOW HEADLINED FOR GLACIER
BAY AND SOUTHERN LYNN AS WELL AS NORTHERN LYNN. CONTEMPLATED
INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
ICY STRAIT, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT MOVE. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO.

WINDS AND TEMPS NOT NEARLY AS SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE OUTER COAST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WERE LOOKING FAIRLY ROBUST EARLIER TODAY,
BUT NEVER SAW ANY LIGHTNING AND CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY
REFERENCE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. HIGHLIGHTED PARTICULARLY
STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU ARE USING THE WORKSTATION WRF MODEL.
BLENDED GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
SNOW LEVELS WITH GFS.

.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ITS WAY DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SE ALASKAS WEATHER THE MAJORITY OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP PERSISTENT GALE FORCE
WINDS IN MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND ESPECIALLY NEAR TAKU
INLET. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH STORM FORCE IN NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE AN ISSUE IN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A TAKU
WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 60
MPH. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS EVENT WITH A STRONG
INVERSION...30 TO 40 KT OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND THE CRITICAL
LEVEL SETTING UP AROUND 500 MB. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN WINDY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SKAGWAY AND THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
SEEING GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH.

A FEW SURFACE WAVES WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS ENERGY
WILL BE SHEARED APART AND WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG HIGH. THIS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

USED THE NAM THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY THEN A BLEND OF THE EC AND HPC
FOR THE LONGER RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-034-036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-035-041-042-052-053.

&&

FRITSCH/TPS