Gale Warning 385, NWS Juneau, AK

673 
FZAK52 PAJK 170729 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180130-
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND YUKON WHILE A 984 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF TRACKS SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-180130-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-180130-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AND DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS
7 FT. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-180130-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-180130-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-180130-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1029 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

803 
FZAK52 PAJK 171224
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND YUKON.  A 978 MB LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL TRACK N TO
NEAR KETCHIKAN SAT NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.     

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WITH AT LEAST TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH COLD BAROCLINIC SHIELD HAS MOVE NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE, OPEN CELL CUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN. RADAR
IMAGERY STILL INDICATING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, SO HAVE STUCK
WITH SHOWER TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO RIDGE SOUTH AND INCREASE
THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL AS GALES GOING TO STORMS FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL. ALSO HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR ZONE 25 AND
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...AS WELL AS TAKU INLET...TO 70 KTS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE AND
WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS, FREEZING SPRAY NOW HEADLINED FOR GLACIER
BAY AND SOUTHERN LYNN AS WELL AS NORTHERN LYNN. CONTEMPLATED
INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
ICY STRAIT, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT MOVE. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO.

WINDS AND TEMPS NOT NEARLY AS SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE OUTER COAST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WERE LOOKING FAIRLY ROBUST EARLIER TODAY,
BUT NEVER SAW ANY LIGHTNING AND CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY
REFERENCE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. HIGHLIGHTED PARTICULARLY
STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU ARE USING THE WORKSTATION WRF MODEL.
BLENDED GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
SNOW LEVELS WITH GFS.

.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ITS WAY DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SE ALASKAS WEATHER THE MAJORITY OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP PERSISTENT GALE FORCE
WINDS IN MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND ESPECIALLY NEAR TAKU
INLET. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH STORM FORCE IN NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE AN ISSUE IN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A TAKU
WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 60
MPH. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS EVENT WITH A STRONG
INVERSION...30 TO 40 KT OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND THE CRITICAL
LEVEL SETTING UP AROUND 500 MB. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN WINDY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SKAGWAY AND THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
SEEING GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH.

A FEW SURFACE WAVES WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS ENERGY
WILL BE SHEARED APART AND WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG HIGH. THIS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

USED THE NAM THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY THEN A BLEND OF THE EC AND HPC
FOR THE LONGER RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-034-036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-035-041-042-052-053.

&&

FRITSCH/TPS