Gale Warning 96, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 31, 2012, 9:55 AM AKST (18:55 UTC)

Expired

Jan 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

232 
FZAK51 PAJK 311855 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-010100-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 983 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE NE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ011-010100-
GLACIER BAY-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO A GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-010100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-010100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-010100-
ICY STRAIT-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-010100-
CROSS SOUND-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL LATE. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-010100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

UPDATED

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-010100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-010100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-010100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-010100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-010100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
955 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 31, 6:07 AM AKST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
607 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...TRANSITION FROM COLD AND SNOWY TO WARM AND WET
WEATHER HAS BEGUN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 9854 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN
AK GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST MOVING
JUST NORTH OF YAKUTAT BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE AK PANHANDLE AND EXITING
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARMED OVER NIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGAN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. EXPECT NORTHERN REGIONS TO SWITCH TO RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE
PROBLEM AREAS ARE YAKUTAT AND HAINES. HAINES REMAINS IN COLD AIR
AS WINDS ARE NORTHWESTERLY, BUT THESE SHOULD WITH TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING MOVING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS OCCUR IN SKAGWAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE 7
DEGREES OVER 2 HOURS AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED
TO 20 KT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING SO DO NOT
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS OVER SKAGWAY AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TO
LAST. FOR YAKUTAT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY NEARED FREEZING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

A SECOND LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF HAS DEEPENED TO 995 MB AS
ROTATION DEVELOPS ALONG ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. EXPECT THE LOW TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. PRECIP FROM THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT AS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AN SHOULD
PROGRESS NORTHWARD TO ABOUT FREDERICK SOUND. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
ABOUT HYDER AS THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FAIR SNOW FALL IF COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. RIGHT NOW WESTERLY FLOW WOULD KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION THIS MORNING CAUSING PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OR A
RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. IN
ADDITION THE LOW IS FAIRLY FAST MOVING WITH PRECIP TIMING LIMITED.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT BUT THE BREAK WILL BE
SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPERATES
RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL TREND AND MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH
RAIN AS TEMPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF LOW. FOR THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM ECMWF AND NAM WERE SHOWING MORE
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO THE GFS, BUT NOT SURE IF EVEN THOSE WERE
SHOWING A DEEP ENOUGH LOW. UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF
06Z NAM12 FOR SOME DETAILS IN THE GULF WINDS. THE AK WAVE MODEL
HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT HIGH WITH SEA HEIGHTS SO TONED DOWN WAVES
BY A FEW FEET. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO
PRECIP TYPE BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION AND QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF.

.LONG TERM...A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AHEAD OF DEEPENING SYSTEM IN WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A POWERFUL 944 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY AND
DRIFTS NORTH TO THE KENAI PEN THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ACCESS TO
VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER BERING AND THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM HEADING NE FROM CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS COMBINED WITH A
160-180 KT JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LEADS TO
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW. JET STREAM TURNS SLY ON WEST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE AND BECOMES PERPENDICULAR TO TERRAIN ACROSS NE GULF
AND SUPPORTS A STRONG 70 KT LOW LEVEL BARRIER JET OVER COASTAL
WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER
AND WILL SPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW
STAYING IN WESTERN GULF WIND WILL DIMINISH TO GALES ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT WHICH HAS FAVORABLE
GRADIENT ORIENTATION. CURRENT GRIDS CARRYING 55 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AND STRONG WINDS FOR ALL OTHER ZONES.

SINCE SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL CONNECTION AND HIGH P-WATER VALUES RAIN
SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG FAVORABLE TERRAIN OF COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY FAST WHICH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT DURATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN. WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK ON THE GROUND AND STORM DRAINS AND DITCHES FULL OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME POUNDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS
AND HAVE SP'S CONTINUING. ALSO WITH A WARMER AIR MASS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA SNOW LEVELS CLIMB AND WILL SEE INCREASED AVALANCHE DANGER.

A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
NEARLY BOMBS BY DROPPING 20 MB IN 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW
BUT AM CONCERNED THIS LOW COULD BE HIGH WIND MAKER FOR SE AK.

ON FRIDAY NEXT LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WRAPPING NORTH. AT SAME TIME A HIGH STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS YUKON AND WE END UP WITH AN EASTERLY WIND PATTERN ACROSS
PANHANDLE SO POPS BEGIN TO DROP OFF AND COULD SEE A BIT COOLER
AIR MASS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...WINTER
STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

PRB/MM

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.