Gale Warning 90, NWS Juneau, AK

141 
FZAK51 PAJK 270828 AAD
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-280045-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO 1000 MB JUST OFF CAPE
EDGCUMBE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY FRI BECOMING
PART OF A LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX CENTERED NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. A
MUCH STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SAT.  

$$

PKZ011-280045-
GLACIER BAY-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-280045-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-280045-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-280045-
ICY STRAIT-
8 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-280045-
CROSS SOUND-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT WITH A SW SWELL. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT WITH A SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-280045-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING LATE. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-280045-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-280045-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 18 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-280045-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-280045-
SUMNER STRAIT-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-280045-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...
EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

627 
FZAK51 PAJK 271257
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-280100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE. A STRONGER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW ALONG WITH ITS WARM FRONT LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT.  

$$

PKZ011-280100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-280100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-280100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-280100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-280100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-280100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40
KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-280100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-280100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS. SEAS 4 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-280100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-280100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SW 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCE. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-280100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE BUT WITH
WINTRY AIR BOTH SURFACE AND VERY COLD ALOFT. -43C AT 500 MB 26/12Z
YAK RAOB AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING IN THE SHOWERS AT SITKA
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE...SO SNOW
SHOWERS IS THE OPERABLE WORD TODAY AND LOOK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
NEAR THE SHOWERS. HUGE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS USUAL IS SNOW AMOUNT
FORECASTS IN SHOWERS MADE MORE COMPLEX BY A NUMBER OF WAVES MOVING
ALONG WITH THE JET. WEST JET AXIS FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO MONTANA
COUPLED WITH SW BRANCH IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING. IT IS CERTAIN
THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE WITH TIME
SO WILL HAVE TO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES LOCATED BY SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND STRIVE TO GET THE TRACK CORRECT.

NATURALLY...26/12Z OPS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING. MOST HAVE THE WAVE OF INTEREST THAT IS NEAR
53N 152W 26/12Z EITHER TOO FAR W OR S. 26/12Z HI-RES ECMWF WAS BEST
AT INITIAL TIME...BUT SHOPPING AROUND THE 26/09Z AK-SREF LOOKED AND
TRACKED BEST AT GRID EDIT TIME BRINGING A 1001 MB SFC LOW CENTER TO
JUST OFF BARANOF ISL BY 27/06Z. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THIS LOW
ALREADY ARRIVING OFF THE COAST. BY 12Z THE SREF PROBABLY IN ERROR
DRIVING THE CENTER TOO FAR INLAND...SO WILL MODEL BLEND AROUND 12Z
FRI ALSO WITH LONG TERM. FOR MODEL QPF WILL BLEND 26/12Z NAM WITH
CURRENT FORECASTS BEST IDEA SO FAR. SNOW SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES SO
ISSUED WARNING THERE. ADVISORIES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FOR SNOW AND
HOONAH AS USUAL. MISTY FJORDS STUCK IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.

CAUTION...ONE SCENARIO IN THESE SHOWERS IS THAT WE DID NOT PUT HIGH
ENOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS. 26/2230Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD STREETS
ALL THE WAY FROM AKPENN ACROSS THE GULF TO JUST BEHIND THE SFC LOW.
UNDER THAT TRAINING TYPE OF SHOWER ALL BETS ARE OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO PUSH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE NORTH TO A LINE
FROM CAPE SPENCER TO JUNEAU BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT
STILL WEAK WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR AND THE
SPEED OF ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, SO TIMING IS AN ISSUE, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP
SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO RAIN IS HIGH.

NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. 500H
RMOP VALUES GENERALLY IN THE LOW END OF THE PREDICTABILITY
SPECTRUM, BUT STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES ONLY RANGING FROM +1
TO -1 STANDARD DEVIATION. 850 MB STANDARDIZED TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES EQUALLY WEAK, GETTING DOWN TO -1 STANDARD DEVIATION OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START, AND
THEN RISING TO +1 STANDARD DEVIATION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL IN WIND FIELDS EITHER. POST
FRONTAL, NO MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, SO HAVE EITHER RAIN, OR A RAIN SNOW MIX
LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF NAM, ECMWF. AND GFS EARLY ON. MID RANGE, USED A
BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF WHERE THERE WAS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT. FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD, BLENDED 00Z ECMWF TO
CURRENT HPC. MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INVOLVED
THE WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN GULF. HAVE PRE-FRONTAL GALES OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MARGINAL GALES OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ021>023-027-028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-041-042-
     051>053.

&&

JC/FRITSCH