Gale Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

273 
FZAK67 PAJK 101245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...TRANSTIONING FROM WARM AND WET WEATHER TO COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING ARCTIC FRONT MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE, WEAK LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF MOVING EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR
DOWNWARD PLUNGE THIS MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
WESTERLIES. PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE SOUTHERN REGIONS
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. THE POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AK GULF WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
MAY SEE SOME CLEAR BREAKS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED BEFORE NEXT FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
STRONGER WINDS NEAR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
WESTERLIES WITH TIP JET FORMATION NEAR CROSS SOUND AND CAPE
SPENCER WILL KEEP WINDS AT 35 TO 40 KTS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH 00Z EC/GFS
INITIALIZING WELL. THE 06Z NAM WAS CLOSE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES IN THE AK GULF BUT BECAME MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW OVER THE YUKON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM
WAS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. UPDATED GRIDS WITH A
50/50 BLEND OF 00Z EC AND INHERITED GRIDS. USED SOME 00Z WSWRF TO
ADJUST WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES NEAR
CROSS SOUND, S CHATHAM STRAIT AND SUMNER STRAIT. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE FAIRLY MINOR AS MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING PRETTY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY ON IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DEPICTING A SOLID TROPICAL CONNECTION AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE FEED ARE IN EXCESS OF
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH QPF VALUES IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SNOW GRIDS FOR ZONES 17, TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF YAKUTAT,
TOTALING 18 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SNOW GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONE 17 WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
AS A RESULT. ALSO GENERATED WINTER STORM SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
HAINES HIGHWAY AND ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS FOR OTHER LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR THESE OTHER AREAS, SO WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CONSIDER WITH NEWER MODEL DATA. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN FALLING
TEMPS AS THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE, BUT DAILY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
BEGIN FALLING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHARPLY DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PINCHES OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
LOW WILL DRAW A DEEP LAYER OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL MODIFY VERY SLOWLY AS THE CUT OFF
LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR AND THE YUKON BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SAG WELL TO
THE SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. VERY COLD AIR ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL INITIALLY SPILL OVER
INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES. BY NEXT WEEK, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE DEPTH OF THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
COME OVER THE TOP OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS, IN WHICH CASE TEMPS
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN EVEN FARTHER.

 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FRONT WILL BE
STRONG. HAVE AN EASTERLY STORM FORCE BARRIER JET IN GRIDS FOR
COASTAL MARINE ZONE 52 AND SOUTHEASTERLY GALES EXTENDING DOWN
PAST THE DIXON ENTRANCE ON WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL OUTFLOW RESPONSE
OVER THE EAST-WEST INNER CHANNELS WITH UP TO 30 KTS. WIND
STRENGTH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH OVER LYNN CANAL AND NORTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW, SO HAVE LIMITED THESE
LOCATIONS TO 20 KTS AT PEAK PRE-FRONTAL TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, NO HIGH WINDS OVER PUBLIC ZONES, BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

 USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRESSURE AND
WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BLENDED GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME. TEMPS MODIFIED WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLE GFS
THROUGHOUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
         MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>034-041-042.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH