Gale Warning 508, NWS Juneau, AK

964 
FZAK52 PAJK 301530 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-310400-
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL TRACK NORTH TOWARDS THE
BERING SEA BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
OUTER COAST SUN EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH ON TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-310400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-310400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-310400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-310400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT LATE.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-310400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
629 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING
TO 20 FT LATE. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

054 
FZAK52 PAJK 310028
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-311400-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK LOW IN THE SE GULF SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE N ALONG THE
OUTER COAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER SW YUKON BY MON
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND SE AK ON MON AND MOVE EAST BY TUE. A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE N PACIFIC WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF ON MON THEN APPROACH
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ041-311400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-311400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-311400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. SW
SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-311400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-311400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL BECOMING
SW IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
426 PM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...RATHER ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN THE WORKS AS
A 955 MB STORM FORCE LOW MOVES TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND INTO SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS THE USUAL
BARRIER JET SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

 FOR THE INNER CHANNELS PRECIP AND WIND WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
FINALLY SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S IN MOST PLACES AS WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS. STILL THERE ARE PLACES THAT REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY. WRANGELL IS SITTING RIGHT AT 32 DEGREES WHERE A LIGHT NW
WIND HAS BEEN BLOWING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HYDER IS SITTING IN
THE MID 20S. AND THE LAST PLACE IS HAINES AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY
SITTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WHERE A STEADY NW WIND HAS BEEN
BLOWING DESPITE THE NOW STRONG S WIND IN LYNN CANAL. WITH THE
INCREASING PRECIP THE ABOVE MENTIONED PLACES HAVE THE BEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAINES
AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY IN PARTICULAR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF THIS FRONT. SO HAVE DECIDED
TO LIFT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HAINES AREA
PARTICULARLY THE HIGHWAY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
IN OTHER PLACES TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW, OR MAY
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

 FARTHER SOUTH THE CONCERN TURNS FROM PRECIP TO WIND. SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND AND HYDABURG ARE THE PLACES THAT ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS AS FIRST THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST THEN THE WEAK WAVE STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD. HAVE DECIDED
TO HOIST A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONES 23 FOR TOMORROW, AND
ZONE 27 FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. I AM ONLY EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO
40 TO 45 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

 MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY WAS ALL RIGHT BUT THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN INITIALIZATION OF THE MAIN LOW. ECMWF AND NAM
SEEMED TO BE TOO FAR WEST COMPARED TO SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. GFS
AND UK HAD A MUCH BETTER FIT. ALSO WITH THE WEAK WAVE ON SUN
AFTERNOON THE GFS HAD THE BEST CONSISTENCY ON TRACK AND TIMING.
MAINLY DECIDED TO USE THE GFS FOR UPDATES IN THE SHORT RANGE
TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE FORMING NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE FRONT OF THE PARENT LOW BARRELING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THEREFORE HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...TO STRONGER GALE IN SOME AREAS AND TO GALE FORCE
IN OTHERS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL RUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE SPENCER. IN
ADDITION...HAVE BOOSTED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL DECLINE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND COLD
AIR ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR SOME HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF WET SNOW THUS EXTENDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AS MUCH OF
THE AIR IS A MARINE MODIFIED COOL AIR MASS, NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES FOR MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
GULF AND TRACK NORTHWARD. ITS SURFACE FRONT WILL PLOW NORTHWARD AND
RAISE POPS AND WINDS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN OUTSIDE
WATERS AND THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO TUESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS LOW AND ENTER OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWEST TOWARD ICY BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN
A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ANOTHER OPEN WAVE. THUS HAVE
RAISED WINDS AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WATERS TO REFLECT THIS
CHANGE.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA EVOLVING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING IN LIKELY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING AT
AN EXTENDED PATTERN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER WEATHER...A LITTLE
DIFFERENT THAN THE UNSEASONABLE WINTER SOUTHEAST HAS EXPERIENCED
THUS FAR.

MODEL OF CHOICE WAS GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
HPC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A BIT TODAY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
TO A MORE GFS FRIENDLY SOLUTION. GFS ALSO SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER OVER THE NEAR NORTH PACIFIC AT THE SURFACE. MODEL AGREEMENT
WAS NOT TOO GREAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...EC AND
GFS CAME TOGETHER BUT THEN DIVERGED YET AGAIN FOR THE LATE TUESDAY
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...HPC
GUIDANCE CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...THUS MADE FEW CHANGES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AKST
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-032-034-035-053.

&&

EAL/JWA