Gale Warning 471, NWS Juneau, AK

196 
FZAK52 PAJK 150454 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-152300-
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-152300-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-152300-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-152300-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. OUT OF CROSS SOUND...E WIND 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT
OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT...HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 23
FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT...HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 23
FT. 



$$

PKZ051-152300-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT...HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT...HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 21
FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT...HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 19
FT. 



$$

PKZ052-152300-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
754 PM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW
SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

072 
FZAK52 PAJK 151232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW ORGANIZED BANDS OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND ONSHORE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.
RAIN SHOWERS LATE.
.SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT
OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. PATCHY FOG IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 970 MB OR SLIGHTLY LOWER BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST POCKET OF THE GULF.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SYSTEM ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW IN THE YAKUTAT AREA AND RAIN AROUND SITKA.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING ARE RANGING
FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE UPPER 30S. ESSENTIALLY IT IS THE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES THAT IS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
SNOW OR RAIN. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGIONS.

BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A FEW OF THE AREAS THAT WILL STAY SNOW
LONGER WILL STRETCH THIS LIMIT. GUSTY WINDS WITH FRONT WILL HAVE
OUR TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 MPH OR SO FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE HOONAH AREA...AND MIXED IN JUNEAU. THEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN...BUT WITH SOME
SNOW MIXED IN TOO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4
INCHES SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT FROM PETERSBURG NORTH.

BEHIND THE FRONT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND UNTIL THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS TO THE SE AND CAUSES A DRYING
TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT THEN
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BRING IN COLDER AIR...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HARD FREEZE UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIP IN WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON