Gale Warning 432, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 970 MB OR SLIGHTLY LOWER BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST POCKET OF THE GULF.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SYSTEM ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW IN THE YAKUTAT AREA AND RAIN AROUND SITKA.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING ARE RANGING
FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE UPPER 30S. ESSENTIALLY IT IS THE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES THAT IS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
SNOW OR RAIN. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGIONS.

BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A FEW OF THE AREAS THAT WILL STAY SNOW
LONGER WILL STRETCH THIS LIMIT. GUSTY WINDS WITH FRONT WILL HAVE
OUR TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 MPH OR SO FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. EARLY IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE HOONAH AREA...AND MIXED IN JUNEAU. THEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN...BUT WITH SOME
SNOW MIXED IN TOO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4
INCHES SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT FROM PETERSBURG NORTH.

BEHIND THE FRONT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND UNTIL THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS TO THE SE AND CAUSES A DRYING
TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT THEN
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BRING IN COLDER AIR...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HARD FREEZE UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIP IN WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON