Gale Warning 443, NWS Juneau, AK

348 
FZAK52 PAJK 011332
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-020100-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW SW OF HAIDA GWAII SAT MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH TO BE OVER DIXON ENTRANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE YUKON AND WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA.    

$$

PKZ041-020100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-020100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-020100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-020100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT..

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO
65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-020100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST FRI NOV 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL THE PATTERN HAS NOT ALTER SIGNIFICANTLY.
SAME VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA. ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TONIGHT FORECAST  ISSUE WAS GOING TO
BE THE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. STORM FORCE
SUSTAINED OVER MARINE WATERS IN THE PANHANDLE...AND STRONGER
GUSTS AS WELL. REISSUED THE WARNING FOR TAKU WINDS IN THE JUNEAU
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT
IT SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

 FOR SATURDAY THE ISSUE WAS TO BE WINDS IN THE NORTH WITH SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SNOW AMOUNTS WAS TO
BE THE CONCERN BUT THOUGHT TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY BUT WITH
FURTHER REVIEW WAS COLDER AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY AIR ALOFT. WILL BE GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN LATE.

 ADDITIONAL MARINE PRODUCT ISSUE IS THE FREEZING SPRAY AND HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AFFECTING NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL AREAS SOME OUTER
WATERS NEAR YAKUTAT WITH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW LOCATIONS.

&&

 .LONG TERM...INTERESTING FORECAST UPCOMING FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE
HAVE A SHORT WAVE RIDING UP THE OUTER COAST SAT NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED OUTFLOW WINDS. AREAS ALONG THE PANHANDLE FROM SUMNER
STRAIT NORTHWARD WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE INNER
CHANNELS. THERE IS NOT A VERY STRONG MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE COMING FROM THE
OVERRUNNING OF THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD ARCTIC AIR. THE MAIN
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
JUNEAU EARLY SAT EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER ANGOON,
JUNEAU AND HOONAH BY LATE SAT EVENING. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT THE BAND LOOKS TO BE
RATHER NARROW SO SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN OUT TO BE LOWER IN SOME
AREAS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BAND GOES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE IN EXCESS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
BAND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH
MAY SEE SNOW OUT OF THIS A LITTLE LATER INTO THE DAY ON SUN BUT
DUE TO THE CONTINUED OUTFLOW THE BAND WILL BE WEAKENING ON SUNDAY.

 OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE HIGH
IN THE YUKON REMAINS BUT IN A WEAKER STATE THAN IT HAS BEEN.
LACKING THE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR THE ONLY THING
SUSTAINING IT IS THE LINGERING COLD AIR THAT IS TRAPPED ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT THE OUTFLOW WIND WILL
NOT BE A STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN. LYNN CANAL SHOULD STILL HAVE
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE
PASSES TO HAVE MIN GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
FREEZING SPRAY. OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BLOW
BUT AT LOWER MAGNITUDES THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS WEEK.

 LOOKING FARTHER OUT MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX FOR HOW THEY ARE
HANDLING THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE COMING INTO THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH. THE STRONGER WAVE THAT WAS FORECAST FOR
TUES HAS NOW BEEN ABANDON BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. IN
ITS PLACE IS A BROAD WEAKER TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE
PANHANDLE ON TUES INSTEAD. OVERALL GUIDANCE WENT TOWARD THE EC
AND NAM IN THE MID RANGE AND EC/HPC IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017>019-029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-034-036-041-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL