Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 428, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 9, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 9, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST (01:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 11, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
260 FZAK67 PAJK 100025 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-101400- 400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUN NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN TO 990 MB 200 NM WEST OF SITKA LATE MON. $$ PKZ310-101400- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012 ...GALE WARNING MONDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL BECOMING W LATE. RAIN LATE. .MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. .WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
4 follow-up statements
509 FZAK67 PAJK 101237 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-110100- 400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN TO 990 MB BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLE AT BARANOF ISLAND SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST ON TUE. A MODERATE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON WED. $$ PKZ310-110100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. .WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
765 FZAK67 PAJK 101758 CCA OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED FOR SYNOPSIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 856 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-111200- 856 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 CORRECTED .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN TO 990 MB BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLE AT BARANOF ISLAND MON NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST ON TUE. A MODERATE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON WED. $$ PKZ310-111200- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 856 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. .WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
169 FZAK67 PAJK 110028 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-111400- 400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 990 MB LOW WEST OF CAPE SPENCER WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. $$ PKZ310-111400- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$
647 FZAK67 PAJK 111303 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-120100- 400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 990 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TO EAST OF PRINCE RUPERT TUE AFTERNOON. A 1010 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE YUKON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WED AND INLAND WED NIGHT. $$ PKZ310-120100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. .THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 9, 6:00 AM AKST, 10 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 9, 6:00 AM AKST, 10 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...THE FAST-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ABOUT
09Z LAST NIGHT AND HAS ALREADY MOVED NE BEYOND OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY TO CANADA. THE WARM UP TO RAIN HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED ON THE OUTER COAST. IN THE INNER CHANNELS THE WARM UP
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS UNDERWAY. KETCHIKAN CHANGED FROM SNOW TO
RAIN BY 1353Z THIS MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE AN INCREASED COMPONENT FROM THE SSE
THIS HELPS MIXING OUT THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR THAT WAS BEING
OVERRUN. THE OVERRUN THAT WAS OVER COLDER AIR IS ALREADY BECOMING
AN OVERRUN OF TERRAIN AND GENERATE WHAT IS CALLED OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO HAS AN 850H FLOW THAT IS FROM THE WSW
AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS NOW
THE MECHANISM, WITH THE LIFT OVER COLDER AIR ABOUT FINISHED. A
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, YET THIS POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
CONVECTIVE. THE STATIC STABILITY IS LESS, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AVAILABLE. RELATIVE VORTICITY VALUES
ARE CLOSE TO NEUTRAL AND A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
MITIGATION OF THE WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY FEATURES THAT ARE GIVEN
A WEAK INDICATION ON THE GOES IR LOOP.
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USEFULLY GOOD, AND A VARIETY OF BOTH
STATISTICAL AND DETERMINISTIC VERSIONS WERE USED. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICYCLONIC ON
MONDAY...THERE IS MOISTURE IN IT AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
SOMEPLACE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN NEAR 40N 172W SORTA NEAR A STRONG
JET EXIT. ALL 09/00Z OPS MODELS AGREE ON THIS LOW BUT THE DEVIL IS
IN THE DETAILS. OPTED FOR THE AK-GFS-40 WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET WHICH ALSO AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HAVE
TO BELIEVE THAT THIS CENTER WILL DIE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE EARLY TUE AND ALL OPS MODELS BUILD A STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE ALONG 160W ALSO EARLY TUE. NO DOUBT THAT THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL MOVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF BY EARLY WED. THIS
IS ACCEPTED AND GIVES SE ALASKA A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND EVEN
IN THE CLOUDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ITS A SHORT BREAK AND BACK INTO
MOIST FLOW LATER ON WED...AGAIN DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. PRECIP TYPE IS DICEY IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS
BUT EXPECT NO SNOWSTORMS IN THE LONG TERM FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS RAIN OR MIXED RAIN SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD SNOW IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. HPC
FORECASTS RELATIVELY WEAK ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
YUKON FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT WOULD HAVE TO HAVE A FEW MORE
DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO WHICH
WOULD MEAN COLDER AIR. ENSEMBLE SPREADS TOO GREAT TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFTER FIVE DAYS ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIMING UNDER ZONAL
FLOW.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-
052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&
JBT/JCIn the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 9, 11:03 AM AKST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1103 AM AKST SUN DEC 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM HEAVY SNOW HAINES 59.24N 135.44W
12/08/2012 M3.8 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
AHNA2 DOWNTOWN HAINES
0400 AM HEAVY SNOW SKAGWAY 59.48N 135.33W
12/09/2012 M4.9 INCH AK PUBLIC
0415 AM HEAVY SNOW JUNEAU 58.30N 134.41W
12/09/2012 M3.7 INCH AK OFFICIAL NWS OBS
WSO JUNEAU
0422 AM HEAVY SNOW YAKUTAT 59.54N 139.73W
12/09/2012 M8.0 INCH AK NWS EMPLOYEE
DOWNTOWN YAKUTAT
0422 AM HEAVY SNOW YAKUTAT 59.54N 139.73W
12/09/2012 M7.5 INCH AK OFFICIAL NWS OBS
WSO YAKUTAT
0600 AM HEAVY SNOW PETERSBURG 56.81N 132.96W
12/09/2012 M4.3 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
PETERSBURG AIRPORT
0600 AM HEAVY SNOW PETERSBURG 56.81N 132.96W
12/09/2012 M5.0 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
USFS DISPATCH
0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 40 NW HAINES 59.65N 136.25W
12/09/2012 M5.5 INCH XXX XX CO-OP OBSERVER
HAINES CUSTOMS
0745 AM HEAVY SNOW WHITE PASS 59.62N 135.14W
12/09/2012 M12.0 INCH AK COUNTY OFFICIAL
0800 AM HEAVY SNOW HOONAH 58.11N 135.44W
12/09/2012 M4.4 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
0815 AM HEAVY SNOW HAINES 59.24N 135.44W
12/09/2012 M6.2 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
1015 AM HEAVY SNOW DYEA 59.48N 135.37W
12/09/2012 M5.3 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 AM HEAVY SNOW HYDER 55.91N 130.02W
12/09/2012 M5.8 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
1023 AM HEAVY SNOW GUSTAVUS 58.41N 135.80W
12/09/2012 M4.1 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
1024 AM HEAVY SNOW PELICAN 57.95N 136.21W
12/09/2012 M6.2 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
1045 AM HEAVY SNOW JUNEAU 58.30N 134.41W
12/09/2012 M4.3 INCH AK NWS EMPLOYEE
1055 AM HEAVY SNOW WRANGELL 56.47N 132.40W
12/09/2012 M8.0 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
RCLThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 36 hr | |
| Dec 9, 4:50 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 11 hr | |
| Dec 10, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 36 hr | |
| Dec 10, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.