Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012

Gale Warning 428, NWS Juneau, AK

December 9, 2012

NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 9, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 9, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST (01:00 UTC)
Expired
Dec 11, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

260 
FZAK67 PAJK 100025
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-101400-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SUN NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DEEPEN TO 990 MB 200 NM WEST OF SITKA LATE MON.  

$$

PKZ310-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL BECOMING W LATE.
RAIN LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$
4 follow-up statements
509 
FZAK67 PAJK 101237
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110100-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN TO
990 MB BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLE AT BARANOF ISLAND SUN
NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST ON
TUE. A MODERATE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON WED.    

$$

PKZ310-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$
765 
FZAK67 PAJK 101758 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED FOR SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
856 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-111200-
856 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

CORRECTED

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN TO
990 MB BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLE AT BARANOF ISLAND MON
NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST ON
TUE. A MODERATE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON WED.    

$$

PKZ310-111200-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
856 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$
169 
FZAK67 PAJK 110028
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-111400-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW WEST OF CAPE SPENCER WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-111400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$
647 
FZAK67 PAJK 111303
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-120100-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TO EAST OF
PRINCE RUPERT TUE AFTERNOON. A 1010 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE YUKON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WED AND INLAND WED
NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ310-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 9, 6:00 AM AKST, 10 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 9, 6:00 AM AKST, 10 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE FAST-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ABOUT
09Z LAST NIGHT AND HAS ALREADY MOVED NE BEYOND OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY TO CANADA. THE WARM UP TO RAIN HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED ON THE OUTER COAST. IN THE INNER CHANNELS THE WARM UP
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS UNDERWAY. KETCHIKAN CHANGED FROM SNOW TO
RAIN BY 1353Z THIS MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE AN INCREASED COMPONENT FROM THE SSE
THIS HELPS MIXING OUT THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR THAT WAS BEING
OVERRUN. THE OVERRUN THAT WAS OVER COLDER AIR IS ALREADY BECOMING
AN OVERRUN OF TERRAIN AND GENERATE WHAT IS CALLED OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO HAS AN 850H FLOW THAT IS FROM THE WSW
AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS NOW
THE MECHANISM, WITH THE LIFT OVER COLDER AIR ABOUT FINISHED. A
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, YET THIS POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
CONVECTIVE. THE STATIC STABILITY IS LESS, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AVAILABLE. RELATIVE VORTICITY VALUES
ARE CLOSE TO NEUTRAL AND A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
MITIGATION OF THE WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY FEATURES THAT ARE GIVEN
A WEAK INDICATION ON THE GOES IR LOOP.

MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USEFULLY GOOD, AND A VARIETY OF BOTH
STATISTICAL AND DETERMINISTIC VERSIONS WERE USED. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICYCLONIC ON
MONDAY...THERE IS MOISTURE IN IT AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
SOMEPLACE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN NEAR 40N 172W SORTA NEAR A STRONG
JET EXIT. ALL 09/00Z OPS MODELS AGREE ON THIS LOW BUT THE DEVIL IS
IN THE DETAILS. OPTED FOR THE AK-GFS-40 WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET WHICH ALSO AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HAVE
TO BELIEVE THAT THIS CENTER WILL DIE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE EARLY TUE AND ALL OPS MODELS BUILD A STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE ALONG 160W ALSO EARLY TUE. NO DOUBT THAT THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL MOVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF BY EARLY WED. THIS
IS ACCEPTED AND GIVES SE ALASKA A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND EVEN
IN THE CLOUDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ITS A SHORT BREAK AND BACK INTO
MOIST FLOW LATER ON WED...AGAIN DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. PRECIP TYPE IS DICEY IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS
BUT EXPECT NO SNOWSTORMS IN THE LONG TERM FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS RAIN OR MIXED RAIN SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD SNOW IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. HPC
FORECASTS RELATIVELY WEAK ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
YUKON FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT WOULD HAVE TO HAVE A FEW MORE
DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO WHICH
WOULD MEAN COLDER AIR. ENSEMBLE SPREADS TOO GREAT TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFTER FIVE DAYS ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIMING UNDER ZONAL
FLOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-
     052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

JBT/JC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 9, 11:03 AM AKST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1103 AM AKST SUN DEC 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
12/08/2012  M3.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AHNA2 DOWNTOWN HAINES

0400 AM     HEAVY SNOW       SKAGWAY                 59.48N 135.33W
12/09/2012  M4.9 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0415 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
12/09/2012  M3.7 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WSO JUNEAU

0422 AM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
12/09/2012  M8.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DOWNTOWN YAKUTAT

0422 AM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
12/09/2012  M7.5 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WSO YAKUTAT

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
12/09/2012  M4.3 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PETERSBURG AIRPORT

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
12/09/2012  M5.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            USFS DISPATCH

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       40 NW HAINES            59.65N 136.25W
12/09/2012  M5.5 INCH        XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES CUSTOMS

0745 AM     HEAVY SNOW       WHITE PASS              59.62N 135.14W
12/09/2012  M12.0 INCH                          AK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HOONAH                  58.11N 135.44W
12/09/2012  M4.4 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
12/09/2012  M6.2 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1015 AM     HEAVY SNOW       DYEA                    59.48N 135.37W
12/09/2012  M5.3 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1020 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
12/09/2012  M5.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1023 AM     HEAVY SNOW       GUSTAVUS                58.41N 135.80W
12/09/2012  M4.1 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1024 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
12/09/2012  M6.2 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1045 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
12/09/2012  M4.3 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1055 AM     HEAVY SNOW       WRANGELL                56.47N 132.40W
12/09/2012  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RCL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 9, 4:00 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK36 hr
Dec 9, 4:50 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK11 hr
Dec 10, 4:00 AM AKSTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Dec 10, 4:00 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK24 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.