Gale Warning 411, NWS Juneau, AK

131 
FZAK51 PAJK 250033
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-251400-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-251400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-251400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-251400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
DIMINISHING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-251400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-251400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-251400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
EVENING. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-251400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
SNOW LATE.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-251400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-251400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-251400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-251400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
602 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A 994 MB
LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST AK GULF ABOUT 100 NM WEST OF CAPE DECISION.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST MOVING
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE
LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH
MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
CENTRAL AK GULF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE
EXITING LOW WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND A 500 MB VORT MAX ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

STEADY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED MAINLY SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT OVER
NIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE 500 MB VORT MAX..BUT FOR
THE SHORT RANGE THAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. OCCASIONAL HEAVY PRECIP
HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH BANDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN DETERMINED BY POSITION OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE ARCTIC AIR FROM THE YUKON
HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AS WARMER AIR FORM THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF EXITS THE AREA. AS OF NOW THE COLD AIR IS MAINLY
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND AND EAST OF SITKA. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN AREAS NORTH ANGOON WITH RAIN SOUTH OF PETERSBURG AND
ALONG THE COAST NEAR SITKA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR
RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THEN DROP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.
THERMAL GRADIENT DROPS 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO
-5C TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND ADVANCING RIDGE AND
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD DROPS TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES
TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE AK GULF CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING LOW. SOME HIGHER WINDS GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH PRESSURE FLUCTUATIONS AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH
GALES FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW EXITS AND WEAKENS THE
GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
THE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. NEW MODEL RUNS DID PUSH THE LOW FURTHER
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH INHERITED GRIDS. WINDS DID WEAKEN A BIT
FASTER IN THE GULF BUT CHANGES TO POP AND QPF VALUES WERE MINIMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
MAIN ISSUE IS MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK
SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONSISTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. AS A
RESULT EXPECT COLD NORTHERLY OUTFLOW TO BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A LOW DRAWS NEAR TO THE SE
GULF. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
LATEST MODEL RUNS START TO DIFFER ON THE LOW PLACEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY MID-WEEK. ONE SOLUTION WOULD
CAUSE GREATER PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...HOWEVER
THE OVERALL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE OFF SHORE...AND HAVE KEPT POPS
CHANCE OR LOWER FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PRESSURE...HOWEVER GAVE A SLIGHTLY
GREATER WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF SINCE IT REPRESENTED A MORE REASONABLE
PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN INSIDE WATERS THAN THE COURSER
GFS. DID INCORPORATE MORE OF THE HPC PRESSURE FIELDS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTED TO DIVERGE WITH A
LOW CENTER IN THE GULF. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-033-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032-034-035-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

PRB/HANNON