Gale Warning 409, NWS Juneau, AK

251 
FZAK52 PAJK 240637
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250030-
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY.   

$$

PKZ041-250030-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-250030-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-250030-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-250030-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-250030-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
940 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING
TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

474 
FZAK52 PAJK 241232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ041-250100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-250100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. SW SWELL.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-250100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING
TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-250100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-250100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT CAUSED HIGH WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE YESTERDAY REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CENTRAL GULF AND IS STILL A POTENT LOW. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN, IT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE OUTER COAST. END RESULT IS THAT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO HIGH
WIND WARNING AND ONLY A FEW STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST, A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE OUTER COAST FROM THE DIXON
ENTRANCE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER

ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER LAND AND FILLS MORE QUICKLY,
SOMEWHERE NEAR CAPE DECISION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON, AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SET UP OFF THE OUTER COAST, BUT THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
BY ONE CATEGORY OR MORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

LOW LEVEL AIR TEMPS REFLECTING A FAIR SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND VERY LITTLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION WAS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS REMAINING LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS FREDERICK SOUND. AS WITH YESTERDAY, SNOW
AMOUNTS TOTALING TO 3 INCHES OR LESS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE. WIND BASED ON NAM BUT STRONGER OVER THE
GULF BY 3 TO 7 KTS. BLENDED GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM FOR POP AND QPF
BUT ADJUSTS THOSE FIELDS TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND AFFECT. TEMPS
ADJUSTED USING BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND SREF. SNOW LEVELS NUDGED
USING GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE ARE SMALL. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE
SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINS OF THIS LOW WILL REDEVELOP ABOUT ABOUT
100 NM NE OF KETCHIKAN 12Z SUN AND DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST.

AT 00Z MON AND 500H: SPLIT IN LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL BE COMING
TOGETHER OVER N GULF COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. BRANCH FROM
THE NNW FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN ENTRANCE TO ONSHORE THE N AK COAST
E OF BARROW.

THE BRANCH FROM THE SW INCLUDES A 500N RIDGE THAT AT THAT TIME
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NW ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE PANHANDLE TOWARD
COL ABOUT 100 NM S OF SEWARD.

12Z WED IS THE BEGINNING OF A STRONGER ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND THOSE
ORIGINAL BRANCHES WILL PROVIDE THE DEEPER ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
SW BRANCH WILL BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS S OF THE GULF THAT
WILL ENHANCE THE N WIND OUTFLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-022-023.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

FRITSCH/JBT