Gale Warning 402, NWS Juneau, AK

510 
FZAK52 PAJK 220450 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221400-
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA. A POWERFUL
STORM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ041-221400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.THU...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-221400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-221400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE.
.THU...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT
OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-221400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 40 KT LATE.
SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-221400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
750 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE AND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

904 
FZAK52 PAJK 221235
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-230100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE N OVER SE
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT MAKING A SECOND
APPROACH TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FROM THE SW FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-230100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT SUBSIDING TO 28 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-230100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 31 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-230100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
24 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-230100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-230100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN IN THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THERE ARE AROUND 4 SEPARATE
CIRCULATION CENTERS VISIBLE ON IR AND VIIRS NIGHTTIME VISIBLE
IMAGES. THE STRONGEST IS WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE CURRENTLY AND IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SECOND LOW
IS JUST SE OF KODIAK ISLAND, A THIRD IS AROUND 50N 140W, AND THE
FOURTH IS A VERY WEAK ONE OVER HAIDA GWAII. THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AT THE
MOMENT. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAIN MOST OF THE
MORNING AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AROUND SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND AS WELL. PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO
SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GULF.

ALSO AFFECTING THE AREA IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
YUKON THAT ALONG WITH THE LOWS IN THE GULF ARE CAUSING STRONG COLD
OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAINES, SKAGWAY
AND JUNEAU ARE STILL UNDER STRONG WIND HEADLINES DUE TO THIS FOR
THE MORNING AND MOST NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE EITHER GALE
WARNINGS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WINDS IN JUNEAU ARE MAINLY
DUE TO A MODERATE TAKU WIND EVENT THAT PEAKED LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 KT AT SOUTH DOUGLAS AND THE FEDERAL BUILDING. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOWS IN THE GULF
WEAKEN AWAY AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW DIMINISHES.

THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING LATE TONIGHT AS WE START TO GET
MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING STRONG STORM IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. BY 12Z THURS THE LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 970 MB AND BE
AROUND 50N 145W. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
WINDS HOWEVER WILL NOT. I AM EXPECTING E TO SE WIND UP TO STORM
FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER MARINE ZONE BY LATE TONIGHT AND GALES
FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND OUTER MARINE
ZONES. ON LAND, GUSTS COULD BE REACHING INTO THE 50 TO 60 MPH
RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED YET. THE MAIN RAIN BANDS WILL
STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD
STILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NOW DISSIPATED LOWS THAT
WERE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS FROM ANY WEAKER PRE-FRONTAL
BANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW AND DRY COLD AIR OVER THE NORTH WILL INHIBIT THE PRECIP
FROM MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. AS FOR
TYPE BARANOF ISLAND, PRINCE OF WALES, AND AREAS SOUTH OF WRANGELL
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WITH MAYBE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT
TIMES. NORTH OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE SNOW BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT IF PRECIP FALLS AT ALL.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. NAM
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT
WERE PRESENT OUT IN THE GULF THIS MORNING SO MAIN GUIDANCE WAS IN
THAT DIRECTION. GFS WAS A CLOSE SECOND, WHILE THE EC LAGGED BEHIND
DUE TO IT REPRESENTING THE FEATURES AS A LITTLE TOO WEAK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...A POWERFUL LOW IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT AND VERY STRONG WINDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
60+ KT WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF... AND POTENTIALLY GUSTS OF
6O TO 80 MPH OR MORE TO IMPACT THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND NORTH TO
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND.

THE LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS LEADING TO STRONG
CROSS BARRIER FLOW IN THE JUNEAU AREA THAT IS FAVORABLE TO TAKU
LIKE WINDS FOR THURSDAY IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND DOUGLAS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON THURSDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS HOW MUCH WARMING WILL BE GOING ON AND
IMPACTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE LOW APPROACHES PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
ANOTHER BATCH OF GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THEM THE AS WELL.
AFTER THAT THE LOW WEAKENS MORE AND SLIDES EAST LEAVING RESIDUAL
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TRYING TO SPREAD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD TO ABOUT SATURDAY AND
THEN FALLS OFF TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY LESS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033-035-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-034-051-052.

&&

EAL/BEZENEK