Gale Warning 404, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 22, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 22, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

728 
FZAK51 PAJK 221240
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-230100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE N OVER SE
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT MAKING A SECOND
APPROACH TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FROM THE SW FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-230100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-230100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-230100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-230100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING 45 KT LATE. EAST OF POINT
ADOLPHUS...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-230100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-230100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-230100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. SNOW.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-230100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT...
EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT
14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-230100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. SNOW. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-230100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-230100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 22 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
INCREASING TO 80 KT IN THE MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS NORTHERN
PORTIONS. SEAS 11 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW LATE. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 21, 4:18 PM AKST, 11 hours 42 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
418 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...NEAR HURRICANE FORCE LOW IS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN THE GULF WILL BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER STORM AS IT ENTERS THE GULF THURSDAY
AND EVIDENCE OF THIS PROCESS IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS STORM WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW. HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS FOR TOMORROW. FARTHER SOUTH, HIGH WIND WARNINGS
ISSUED AS WELL, BUT MORE FORM THE STRENGTH OF THE PRE- FRONTAL
WINDS. 850 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS HAS BEEN THE GOVERNING
FACTOR WITH REGARD TO WHERE AND WHEN THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. RELATED TO THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL BE GALE AND STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL MARINE
ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO VERY STRONG WINDS, THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ON
IMAGERY, THE BAROCLINIC LEAF IS QUITE LARGE AND VERY WELL DEFINED.
ON THE ONE HAND, IF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR AND NEAR SURFACE STABILITY
DOMINATE, SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND LARGE SCALE OVER
RUNNING WILL ENSUE SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT COULD
TURN INTO A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR AND THUS BREAK DOWN THE LOW LEVEL
STABILITY, MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY EVEN STRONGER WINDS
TO REACH THE SURFACE THAN ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE STRONG FRONT IDEA
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PLACES THAT WILL STILL SEE UP TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND UPDATES TODAY. BLENDED ECMWF AND
GFS FOR POP AND QPF. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS WITH BOTH NAM
AND GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE LOW, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN
THE SHORT RANGE SECTION, WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE LOW WILL BE
400 NM S OF YAKUTAT AT 00Z FRI AS IT REACHES IT'S GREATEST DEPTH
OF 955 MB. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LARGE, STRONG AND SLOW TO
WEAKEN, AS PER THE DEPICTIONS SHOWN ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE
MODELS HAVE A USEFUL CONSENSUS AND THE CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.
THE LOW WILL BE ABOUT 100 NM SW OF SITKA AT 12Z SAT AS IT FILLS TO
ABOUT 992 MB.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ023-025-026-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023-025-
     027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017-023-025-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ019-022.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-035-036-041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-051>053.

&&

FRITSCH/JBT

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.