Gale Warning 390, NWS Juneau, AK

049 
FZAK52 PAJK 181928 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190100-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT. A 978 MB
LOW IN THE SE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF MON. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL PERSIST. 

$$

PKZ041-190100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-190100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-190100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-190100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-190100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
426 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WITH AT LEAST TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH COLD BAROCLINIC SHIELD HAS MOVE NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE, OPEN CELL CUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN. RADAR
IMAGERY STILL INDICATING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, SO HAVE STUCK
WITH SHOWER TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO RIDGE SOUTH AND INCREASE
THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL AS GALES GOING TO STORMS FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL. ALSO HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN FOR ZONE 25 AND
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...AS WELL AS TAKU INLET...TO 70 KTS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE AND
WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS, FREEZING SPRAY NOW HEADLINED FOR GLACIER
BAY AND SOUTHERN LYNN AS WELL AS NORTHERN LYNN. CONTEMPLATED
INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
ICY STRAIT, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT MOVE. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO.

WINDS AND TEMPS NOT NEARLY AS SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE OUTER COAST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WERE LOOKING FAIRLY ROBUST EARLIER TODAY,
BUT NEVER SAW ANY LIGHTNING AND CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY
REFERENCE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

USED NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. HIGHLIGHTED PARTICULARLY
STRONG WINDS IN THE JUNEAU ARE USING THE WORKSTATION WRF MODEL.
BLENDED GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
SNOW LEVELS WITH GFS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL SPIN A SHORTWAVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THIS WILL SPREAD POPS THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE
CENTRAL COASTAL INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC AIR
MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN
FALLING IN PELICAN...AND MIXING WITH RAIN IN SITKA. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL REFLECT TO THE SURFACE AS A NEW LOW TRYING TO FORM OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE ORIGINAL PARENT LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF. ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON WILL STRENGTHEN.
ACCORDING TO THE NAM PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SKAGWAY TO HAINES
WILL PEAK JUST ABOVE 11 MB MONDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE INDICATED
STORM FORCE WINDS FOR ALL OF LYNN CANAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN GLACIER BAY WILL EXPERIENCE GALES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL ALSO PLAGUE GLACIER BAY AND SOUTHERN LYNN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
WINDS STRONGER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...BUT NOTHING WATCH WORTHY
AT THIS TIME FOR JUNEAU.

BY TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEREFORE
ALLOWS DRIER AND COOLER AIR EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. POPS WILL DROP IN RESPONSE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH GFS KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE THE ECMWF
WILL RAPIDLY DEPLETE IT OF ENERGY IN FAVOR OF A DEEPENING SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHWEST. HPC HAS TRENDED IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF SYSTEM AND
THUS HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED WINDS AND
POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT WINDS ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL
OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE INSIDE CHANNELS. IF ECMWF IS TO
BELIEVED WINDS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED EVEN STRONGER IN LATER
PACKAGES.

USED COMBO OF ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN
TRANSITIONED WITH EC AND HPC FROM WEDNESDAY BEYOND. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST SUNDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>036-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

MM/JWA