Gale Warning 389, NWS Juneau, AK

701 
FZAK52 PAJK 180634 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190045-
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HAIDA GWAII WILL TRACK
NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY. A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO 978 MB
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN.
 

$$

PKZ041-190045-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 8
FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-190045-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-190045-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-190045-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-190045-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
934 PM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

657 
FZAK52 PAJK 181228
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT. A 978 MB
LOW IN THE SE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF MON. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL PERSIST. 

$$

PKZ041-190100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-190100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-190100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-190100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-190100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

049 
FZAK52 PAJK 181928 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190100-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT. A 978 MB
LOW IN THE SE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF MON. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL PERSIST. 

$$

PKZ041-190100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-190100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-190100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-190100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-190100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1028 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
637 AM AKST SAT NOV 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED INTO THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH AND IS REACHING LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A 975 MB LOW 200 NM S OF KETCHIKAN
WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING N TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A WEAK CONTRIBUTION TO THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
PANHANDLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR A MOUNTAIN
WAVE WIND EVENT THAT IS CALLED "TAKU WIND". GUSTS OF 60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED IN DOUGLAS AND IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU BEGINNING BETWEEN
9 AM AKST AND NOON TODAY, AND EXTENDING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED
BY A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALOFT THAT EXTENDS N ALONG MERIDIAN 180
DEGREES. THE SOUNDING AT WHITEHORSE YT SHOWS THE DEPTH OF ARCTIC
AIR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE.
THIS ARCTIC OUTFLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
FOR LYNN CANAL, GLACIER BAY, AND SOME OF THE INTERIOR PASSES TO
STEPHENS PASSAGE. PLEASE NOTE THE MARINE AND PUBLIC TABLES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...ENDED UP USING THE 00Z ECMWF OUT TO MON NIGHT...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO LATEST HPC BY TUE NIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMED TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AREA ALSO. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE LOCALLY AROUND JUNEAU DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY RIDGE TOP WINDS KEEPING LOWER LEVELS VERY DRY
AND NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO REACH SEA LEVEL. THERE WAS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS HOWEVER...SO KEPT IN CHANCE POPS AROUND
JUNEAU WHILE GOING WITH LIKELY TO THE SW OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR FROM OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL LIE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THINK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THOUGH AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
SYSTEMS SHEARS APART AS THEY TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTH.

FOR MON-TUE...WILL KEEP HIGHER PRECIP THREAT OVER THE SOUTH AS
MORE WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THAT AREA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTH. DID LOWER TEMPS SOME OVER THE NORTH
SUN INTO MON. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER TAKU WIND EVENT IN JUNEAU SUN
NIGHT INTO MON BUT WILL NOT MENTION YET DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE SAME AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEK...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SE GULF AREA...BUT THEY DIFFERED ON
TIMING AND POSITION ENOUGH TO MAKE THAT A LOWER CONFIDENCE DETAIL.
THE HPC DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK BUT GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON IT YET AS IT IS STILL
WELL OUT IN THE FUTURE. OF INTEREST...THE 06Z GFS DID TREND IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE 00Z EC ON THIS...WHICH WAS A DAY LATER AND
FURTHER EAST WITH THE STORM THAN THE 00Z GFS WAS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025. STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012. GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ011-013-022-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ021-031>035-041-042-051-052.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT FOR AKZ025. STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ018-019. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012. GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ011-013-022-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ021-031>035-041-042-051-052.

&&

JBT/RWT