Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 376, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 10, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 10, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST (01:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 11, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
696 FZAK51 PAJK 110048 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-111400- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT TO THE SE MON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. $$ PKZ011-111400- GLACIER BAY- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ012-111400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. RAIN LATE. .SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ013-111400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 .TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ021-111400- ICY STRAIT- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ022-111400- CROSS SOUND- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .SUN...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ031-111400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW LATE. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-111400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-111400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ034-111400- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ035-111400- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR CAPE DECISION. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-111400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
1 follow-up statement
709 FZAK51 PAJK 111241 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-120100- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE THROUGH MON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH MON. $$ PKZ011-120100- GLACIER BAY- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ012-120100- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 .TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ013-120100- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 .TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ021-120100- ICY STRAIT- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY... .TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ022-120100- CROSS SOUND- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY... .TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ031-120100- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 .TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-120100- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 .TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-120100- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ034-120100- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ035-120100- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-120100- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT... EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 10, 3:39 PM AKST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 10, 3:39 PM AKST, 21 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND ITS
ASSOC FRONT ARE CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
SNOW FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY. WINDS
AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR COASTAL ZONES OF ELFIN COVE AND SITKA AND ADDED
IN THE HYDABURG/CRAIG ZONE FOR TONIGHT. PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS...MAINLY DUE TO A LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND FALLING AS VIRGA. AS OF 2 PM RAIN HAS BEGUN IN
SITKA...BUT AGAIN DUE TO THE DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING THINKING
THAT SOME OF THIS WILL HAVE SNOW MIXING IN. ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
TO THE JUNEAU AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL LIKELY FALL AS ALL
SNOW SINCE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AT THE JUNEAU AIRPORT IS JUST
NOW AT 32F. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING WITH THIS FRONT SO
MANY PLACES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW OR CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. THIS
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. UP NORTH IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING ALL MORNING WITH ABOUT 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE MORNING IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY GETTING RAIN.
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE SNOW IS
LIKELY ALL DAY. HYDER WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
THE NAM12 INITIALIZED THE PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST SO NUDGED
TOWARD THAT FOR WINDS. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND ALOFT DECREASED
THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR TOMORROW BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHICH CAUSED
A COUPLE LOCATIONS TO SEE A BIT MORE SNOW IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE CHANGES ARE FAIRLY MINOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...AT MID LEVELS: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE
AK GULF MID WEEK. WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN AK GULF. THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
AND MOVE THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW MOVES FROM
THE BRING SEA OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF. BY
NEXT WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE AK GULF.
AT THE SURFACE: SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL FILL
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADVECT COLDER AIR IN.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTING PRECIP TO BE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM
THE BERING SEA LOW. FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND PASSOVER THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK THEN BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW BUT LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 982 MB WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THE
WEEKEND MODELS SPLIT BETWEEN CONTINUING TO TRACK THE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OF KEEPING IT ON A ROTATING
PATH AROUND THE GULF.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EXITING FRONT...WITH NAM KEEPING
LOW CENTER BIT FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE OPEN WAVE TROUGHS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THERE WAS SOME CONSENSUS ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES. ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE LOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF STILL FASTER THEN THE GFS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER KODIAK BUT ALSO TRACKING THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CENTERED IN THE
AK GULF. ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN BUT STILL
NOT SHOWING A COMPLETELY CONSISTENT TREND. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/ECMWF THEN ECMWF/GFS AND FINALLY NEW HPC. WITH NEW PRESSURE
PATTERN MAIN CHANGE WAS TO WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME INSIDE
CHANNELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032-034.
&&
HANNON/PRBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Nov 11, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Nov 11, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.