Gale Warning 375, NWS Juneau, AK

383 
FZAK52 PAJK 111232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SE THROUGH MON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND ITS
ASSOC FRONT ARE CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
SNOW FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY. WINDS
AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR COASTAL ZONES OF ELFIN COVE AND SITKA AND ADDED
IN THE HYDABURG/CRAIG ZONE FOR TONIGHT. PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS...MAINLY DUE TO A LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND FALLING AS VIRGA. AS OF 2 PM RAIN HAS BEGUN IN
SITKA...BUT AGAIN DUE TO THE DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING THINKING
THAT SOME OF THIS WILL HAVE SNOW MIXING IN. ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
TO THE JUNEAU AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL LIKELY FALL AS ALL
SNOW SINCE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AT THE JUNEAU AIRPORT IS JUST
NOW AT 32F. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING WITH THIS FRONT SO
MANY PLACES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW OR CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. THIS
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. UP NORTH IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING ALL MORNING WITH ABOUT 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.

 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE MORNING IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY GETTING RAIN.
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE SNOW IS
LIKELY ALL DAY. HYDER WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

 THE NAM12 INITIALIZED THE PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST SO NUDGED
TOWARD THAT FOR WINDS. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND ALOFT DECREASED
THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR TOMORROW BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHICH CAUSED
A COUPLE LOCATIONS TO SEE A BIT MORE SNOW IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE CHANGES ARE FAIRLY MINOR.

 &&

.LONG TERM...AT MID LEVELS: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE
AK GULF MID WEEK. WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN AK GULF. THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
AND MOVE THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW MOVES FROM
THE BRING SEA OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF. BY
NEXT WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE AK GULF.

AT THE SURFACE: SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL FILL
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADVECT COLDER AIR IN.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTING PRECIP TO BE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM
THE BERING SEA LOW. FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND PASSOVER THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK THEN BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW BUT LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 982 MB WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THE
WEEKEND MODELS SPLIT BETWEEN CONTINUING TO TRACK THE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OF KEEPING IT ON A ROTATING
PATH AROUND THE GULF.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EXITING FRONT...WITH NAM KEEPING
LOW CENTER BIT FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE OPEN WAVE TROUGHS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THERE WAS SOME CONSENSUS ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES. ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE LOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF STILL FASTER THEN THE GFS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER KODIAK BUT ALSO TRACKING THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CENTERED IN THE
AK GULF. ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN BUT STILL
NOT SHOWING A COMPLETELY CONSISTENT TREND. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/ECMWF THEN ECMWF/GFS AND FINALLY NEW HPC. WITH NEW PRESSURE
PATTERN MAIN CHANGE WAS TO WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME INSIDE
CHANNELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032-034.

&&

HANNON/PRB