Gale Warning 366, NWS Juneau, AK

874 
FZAK51 PAJK 051743 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060100-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO SE ALASKA THROUGH MON
EVENING. A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE N GULF THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ011-060100-
GLACIER BAY-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-060100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-060100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-060100-
ICY STRAIT-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-060100-
CROSS SOUND-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-060100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-060100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-060100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-060100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-060100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-060100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
843 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL MOVE NE
ACROSS CENTRAL SE AK AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE S OVER THE PANHANDLE MON. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF THROUGH MON. THE 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF WERE PREFERRED MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THEIR HANDLING OF THE STORM EARLY ON.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S THIS
EVENING. RIGHT NOW SECOND WRAP OF OCCLUDED FRONT IS HAMMERING THE
FAR SERN AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH....INCLUDING
A GUST TO 98 MPH ON THE ROOF OF THE PAKT AIRPORT AT 22Z. THINK
THE SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE STORM RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WILL MENTION
GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR MORE FOR PUBLIC ZONES 27 AND 28 FOR THE
EVENING HOURS AND KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO KEEP HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT
FOR WINDS OF 75 KT GUSTING TO 100 KT THIS EVENING...AND A STORM
WARNING FOR MARINE ZONE 41 FOR THE EVENING. FOR PUBLIC ZONES
26 AND 29...WILL MENTION GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH A
GALE FOR MARINE ZONES 35 AND 42. GIVEN THE LOW TRACKING JUST S OF
ZONE 23...WILL REMOVE THE STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THEM WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THEN.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY WINDY IN A N-NE FLOW THIS
EVENING BUT WILL NOT HEADLINE ANY PUBLIC ZONES.

 ONCE LOW HAS JUMPED INLAND...INCREASING S-SW FLOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SE GULF AND MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS LATER TONIGHT AND
MON. DID NUDGE WINDS UPWARD A BIT FOR THE NRN INNER CHANNELS MON.
WENT FOR MAX SCA FOR MARINE ZONES 12 AND 31 MON...WITH MIN SCA
FOR THE REMAINING INNER CHANNEL AREAS.

 OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE FAR N AREA.
PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY FROM SE TO NW LATE TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH ONLY THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA REMAINING IN A SOMEWHAT
STEADY PRECIP MODE MON. DID NUDGE SOME TEMPS UP TONIGHT AS
AIRMASS COMING IN BEHIND THE STORM IS NOT VERY COLD. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME MON AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE FAR N.

 &&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST IS STARTING TO QUIET DOWN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE RECENT STORMS STARTS A SLOW
BUT STEADY MARCH TO THE EAST. AS A REFLECTION OF THIS NO REALLY
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE
TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SW FLOW INTO THE AREA. PLUS WITH THE COLD AIR THAT CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE LOW ALOFT FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR THIS PRECIP
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN
TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT SEA LEVEL IN MOST AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF THE CONTINUED SW FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND THE GULF MODIFYING ANY
OF THE COLD AIR THAT DOES MAKE IT AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE.

THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BY WED AS WE HAVE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE YUKON AND THE NORTHERN
GULF LOW SLIDES SE BECOMING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND DRYER COLDER
CLEARER WEATHER FOR WED INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE AND MAY BRING
SOME COLDER WEATHER AND STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS. ONE CONCERN FROM
THIS IS THAT LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY MAY SEE THEIR FIRST
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY EVENT OUT OF THIS. BEST CHANCES FOR
FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON WED AND THURS NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THIS THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECIDED WHEN THE
OUTBREAK WILL END. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH ACROSS THE GULF FRI AND SAT BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER, BY ABOUT 24 HOURS, THAN THE GFS. PART OF THE REASON
IS THAT THE GFS HAS A MUCH FLATTER AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED ON STICKING WITH THE
ECMWF AND THE HPC (WHICH WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION)
SOLUTION IN THIS INSTANCE AS SYSTEMS TEND TO HAVE A RATHER HARD
TIME BREAKING THROUGH A COLD RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE LIKE THIS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1209 AM AKST MON NOV 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WNW EDNA BAY         56.01N 134.13W
11/04/2012  M81.00 MPH                          AK   C-MAN STATION

0916 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  CRAIG                   55.47N 133.13W
11/04/2012  U0.00 MPH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE...HUGGABLE IN DIAMETER...LIFTED UP BY ROOTS IN YARD.
            DID NOT FALL, BUT LEANING. UTILITY TRUCKS SEEN ACROSS
            STREET. POWER STAYED ON. WINDS SOUNDED LIKE FREIGHT
            TRAIN. HOUSE SHOOK DURING HIGHEST WINDS. TIME ESTIMATED.

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N KETCHIKAN          55.48N 131.65W
11/04/2012  E80.00 MPH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            80 MPH WIND GUST FROM SOUTHEAST. 50 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS.
            RAINFALL HEAVY.

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N KETCHIKAN          55.48N 131.65W
11/04/2012  E115 MPH                            AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            90 MPH SUSTAINED WITH 115 MPH GUSTS ESTIMATED. TREES
            SWAYED ABOUT LIKE BOWLING PINS.

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
11/04/2012  M98.00 MPH                          AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            AIRPORT ROOFTOP WIND SPEED MEASURED. ASOS WIND SPEED GUST
            WAS MEASURED AT 66 MPH...LOWER THAN ROOFTOP.

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE COFFMAN COVE      56.06N 132.70W
11/04/2012  M107 MPH         PKZ036             AK   BUOY

            SUSTAINED 75 MPH GUSTING TO 107 MPH.

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.82W
11/04/2012  M67.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

&&

JWA