Gale Warning 345, NWS Juneau, AK

571 
FZAK67 PAJK 051230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-060100-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO SE ALASKA THROUGH MON
EVENING. A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE N GULF THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ310-060100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL MOVE NE
ACROSS CENTRAL SE AK AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE S OVER THE PANHANDLE MON. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF THROUGH MON. THE 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF WERE PREFERRED MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THEIR HANDLING OF THE STORM EARLY ON.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S THIS
EVENING. RIGHT NOW SECOND WRAP OF OCCLUDED FRONT IS HAMMERING THE
FAR SERN AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH....INCLUDING
A GUST TO 98 MPH ON THE ROOF OF THE PAKT AIRPORT AT 22Z. THINK
THE SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN RAPIDLY
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE STORM RAPIDLY WEAKENS. WILL MENTION
GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR MORE FOR PUBLIC ZONES 27 AND 28 FOR THE
EVENING HOURS AND KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO KEEP HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT
FOR WINDS OF 75 KT GUSTING TO 100 KT THIS EVENING...AND A STORM
WARNING FOR MARINE ZONE 41 FOR THE EVENING. FOR PUBLIC ZONES
26 AND 29...WILL MENTION GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH A
GALE FOR MARINE ZONES 35 AND 42. GIVEN THE LOW TRACKING JUST S OF
ZONE 23...WILL REMOVE THE STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THEM WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THEN.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY WINDY IN A N-NE FLOW THIS
EVENING BUT WILL NOT HEADLINE ANY PUBLIC ZONES.

 ONCE LOW HAS JUMPED INLAND...INCREASING S-SW FLOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SE GULF AND MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS LATER TONIGHT AND
MON. DID NUDGE WINDS UPWARD A BIT FOR THE NRN INNER CHANNELS MON.
WENT FOR MAX SCA FOR MARINE ZONES 12 AND 31 MON...WITH MIN SCA
FOR THE REMAINING INNER CHANNEL AREAS.

 OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE FAR N AREA.
PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY FROM SE TO NW LATE TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH ONLY THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA REMAINING IN A SOMEWHAT
STEADY PRECIP MODE MON. DID NUDGE SOME TEMPS UP TONIGHT AS
AIRMASS COMING IN BEHIND THE STORM IS NOT VERY COLD. NUDGED TEMPS
UP SOME MON AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE FAR N.

 &&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST IS STARTING TO QUIET DOWN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE RECENT STORMS STARTS A SLOW
BUT STEADY MARCH TO THE EAST. AS A REFLECTION OF THIS NO REALLY
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE
TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SW FLOW INTO THE AREA. PLUS WITH THE COLD AIR THAT CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE LOW ALOFT FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR THIS PRECIP
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN
TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT SEA LEVEL IN MOST AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF THE CONTINUED SW FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND THE GULF MODIFYING ANY
OF THE COLD AIR THAT DOES MAKE IT AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE.

THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BY WED AS WE HAVE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE YUKON AND THE NORTHERN
GULF LOW SLIDES SE BECOMING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND DRYER COLDER
CLEARER WEATHER FOR WED INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE AND MAY BRING
SOME COLDER WEATHER AND STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS. ONE CONCERN FROM
THIS IS THAT LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY MAY SEE THEIR FIRST
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY EVENT OUT OF THIS. BEST CHANCES FOR
FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON WED AND THURS NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THIS THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECIDED WHEN THE
OUTBREAK WILL END. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH ACROSS THE GULF FRI AND SAT BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER, BY ABOUT 24 HOURS, THAN THE GFS. PART OF THE REASON
IS THAT THE GFS HAS A MUCH FLATTER AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED ON STICKING WITH THE
ECMWF AND THE HPC (WHICH WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION)
SOLUTION IN THIS INSTANCE AS SYSTEMS TEND TO HAVE A RATHER HARD
TIME BREAKING THROUGH A COLD RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE LIKE THIS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/EAL