Gale Warning 344, NWS Juneau, AK

755 
FZAK67 PAJK 030748 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1148 PM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040200-
1148 PM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SW GULF WILL MOVE NE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO  THE FAR EAST GULF LATE SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-040200-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1148 PM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...EASTERN PORTIONS...NE WIND 30 KT. WESTERN PORTIONS...SE 20
KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 



$$

848 
FZAK67 PAJK 031146
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SW GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SE GULF SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...EASTERN PORTIONS...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. WESTERN PORTIONS...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

735 
FZAK67 PAJK 032024 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1224 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
1224 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SW GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SE GULF SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1224 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...EASTERN PORTIONS...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. WESTERN PORTIONS...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING
W
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

506 
FZAK67 PAJK 032330
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-041400-
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. A
STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SE
GULF SUN AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-041400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...EASTERN PORTIONS...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. WESTERN PORTIONS...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING
NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

439 
FZAK67 PAJK 041246
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF 140 W...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. W OF 140 W...SE WIND 15 BECOMING N IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF 55 N...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. N OF 55 N...NW 20 BECOMING SW LATE.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
329 PM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING RAIN AND WIND ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
NORTH GULF COAST  SATURDAY. CHANGES ARE SMALL. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

 GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON LARGER SCALES AND IN THE GULF. AT 18Z
SAT THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/EC ALL HAVE THE LOW 300 NM S OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND, WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF EACH OTHER. CENTRAL PRESSURES
GFS/NAM 968, EC 966, UKMET 971. EVEN A QUITE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING E FM LOW TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS A REASONABLE
MATCH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES, BUT THIS IS NOT A DAY TO PICK A
SINGLE MODEL, AND BLENDING IS TO BE DONE EXCEPT FOR FEATURES THAT
INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE NOT BEST AT.

.LONG TERM...ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND DRIFT TO THE NORTH.
THIS LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SEPARATE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST GULF SUNDAY
EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AIDED BY BEING
LOCATED IN THE LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 970MB BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. THE FORECASTED TRACK AT THIS
MOMENT TAKES THE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE EC...UKMET...AND NAM. WITH THIS
TRACK...AM EXPECTING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 26. IF THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM VERIFY...WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH UP THE
HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 60 MPH. THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND CLARENCE
STRAIT WILL EXPERIENCE STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
A MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH
WOULD EXPAND THE HIGH WIND THREAT TO ALSO INCLUDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
PANHANDLE BUT IS BEING CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

 THE REMNANT PARENT LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHEAST GULF LATER WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASING LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CAN EXPECT HIGHS
NEAR 40 AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING.

 BLENDED IN THE 12Z EC WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS WHICH PROVIDED A
GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE SUNDAY STORM FORCE LOW. THE LATTER
PERIODS TRANSITIONED TO HPC WHICH WAS HEAVILY DOMINATED BY THE
EC. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-033>036-041-053.

&&

JBT/TPS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012

AKZ026>029-031300-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
349 PM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND AND QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO 60 MPH OR MORE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KUIU
AND KUPREANOF ISLANDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SECOND BURST OF WINDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SURROUNDING MARINE AREAS WITH LINCOLN
ROCK LIKELY REACHING STORM FORCE.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHICH AREAS SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.