Gale Warning 340, NWS Juneau, AK

399 
FZAK51 PAJK 291136
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-300100-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO B.C.
THROUGH TUE MORNING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF MON
EVENING THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON
NIGHT...THEN REMAIN THERE TUE. 

$$

PKZ011-300100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-300100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-300100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-300100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-300100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. SNOW LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-300100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-300100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-300100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS TO 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-300100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-300100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-300100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 29 2012 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...JUST OFF YAKUTAT BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE YUKON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN GULF SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD HEADING TO HAIDA
GWAII. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS PREVAIL
OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND NEAR SHORE OF THE CENTRAL OUTSIDE
WATERS. GUSTY OUTFLOW CONTINUES NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SOME MID
CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREA AS THE HIGH OVER
THE YUKON SLIDES SOUTHWARD. THE LOW HEADING TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII
PUSHES MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER DIXON ENTRANCE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AREAS.

 MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
YUKON CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE WEAK LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 12Z RUN NAM FOR
ITS BEST INITIALIZATION. AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS HINT A
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENAI PENINSULA. AS THIS LOW
DEVELOPS...THE WEAK LOW ROTATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVES TO THE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS.

 THE SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE LOW OVER HAIDA
GWAII A LITTLE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE POP OF RAIN AND SNOW.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE WILL ENTER A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM OFFSHORE
FLOW TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE TRANSITION WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
YAKUTAT AREA WITH A CHANCE SNOW BEGINS WEST OF ICY BAY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL EAST
DOWN IN THE MORNING AND THE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. ROUGH SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT'S DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA LOW IS ON SCHEDULE. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF IT
SOMEWHAT...FALLING BETTER IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. STILL
DISCOUNTED ECMWF BECAUSE IT SHEARS APART FASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
YAKUTAT SHOULD RECEIVE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO MORE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IT CHANGES TO
RAIN. THIS IS BELIEVABLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR COMING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE BERING STRAIT INTERACTING WITH THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF...
SO IT SHOULD BE A CASE OF QUICK CYCLOGENESIS. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS EASTWARD TUESDAY AS THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVERRUNS THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY WHERE COLD AIR HAS A
TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT LAST. JUNEAU ALSO LOOKS A STRONG CANDIDATE TO
SEE ITS FIRST ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON.

WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ALSO ON SCHEDULE TO DEVELOP WITH SMALL
CRAFT SOUTHEASTERLIES SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTSIDE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE SOLID WESTERLIES ARISE
OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING
PARALLEL TO MANY OF THE NORTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS...DECIDED TO
FLIP DIRECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO SOUTH IN SOME KEY AREAS.

MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM MAINLAND ALASKA
WILL DIG DEEPER MIDWEEK TO SPAWN A NEW LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
WHICH WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF THURSDAY. THE NEW LOW WILL
QUICKLY DEPRIVE THE NORTHERN GULF LOW OF ENERGY AND THE BIG STORY
FOR SOUTHEAST WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK SPREADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GFS/NAM MIX WAS USED FOR NEAR SHORT-TERM WITH GFS BLENDING INTO
SUN 00Z HPC FOR EXTENDED. CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM FORECAST
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

AHN/JWA